re tls, page-9

javip, thanks for the detailed reply.

I am glad that you yave a tech background and so understand the issues facing Telco's. You should then understand that my views are not directed at the short term viability of Telstra, but it's longer (5-15 year) evolution.

As you have shared something of your background, allow me to share some of mine. I have over 20 years in IT, over half in the Telco sector and in that time have held leadership roles in Telstra's technology groups. I have been involved in the strategy and transformation of the company and I have a solid understanding of the landscape and emerging trends.

I stand by my original comments and will add, that Telstra is too big, too old and too slow to compete in this and the coming reality.

I am not saying it will implode or go broke, I am saying it will not grow into a wealth creating entity, but slowly and progressively revert into a backhaul carrier with a marginal retail face while others take over it's lucrative retail markets. It will put up a fight and may even win an occasional battle and the sp. will rally, but it will fall in the end.

I am deliberately making this overly dramatic and simplistic comment to give you and others some food for thought. Not as a statement of absolute correctness. I want long term investors to think about what it is they are investing in when they look at Telstra.

1) look at the PSTN revenue
2) Look at the aging copper network (CAN)
3) look at the increasing fault rate on the CAN
4) look at the reduction in infra. spending and r&d
5) look at the migration of mobiles
6) look at the fttn timeline and cost/return
7) look at the REAL position wrt. (so called) broadband takeup (I mean retail, not the "inflated" wholesale figures).
8) look at the resistance to bring in ADSL2 and voip at a retail level
9) look at the fragmented nature of the organisation
and the list goes on.

I assure you, my comments are well founded and reflecct the long term trend.