I posted 10% on 29 Feb, and I still think that's about right, though might be shrinking a little, but there's no real news since then (ASx200 exclusion, UBS selling down, weekly cash reporting required by lenders, etc doesn't count as real news). My valuation of the 10% upside = 1$ which is probability-weighted upside scenarios. This would include some news like NIHL becoming cash positive, for example.
My overall valuation is 12c, with most likely outcome being zero (70%). The interplay between financial distress and internal dynamics a law firm is the most critical assumption in the zero outcome. (Valuation was 20c prior to Feb 29 news. But news a bit worse than even I expected.)
However, SGH is a special stock because it is such a well known name and so many small investors think lawyers make money but don't understand law firms, so SGH seems keeps attracting new buyers in or old ones averaging down. You see some of them on SGH threads posting their rationales. I've called this effect on SGH sp "levitation" many times since above $1. I haven't seen a really good rationale posted yet and many very poor ones, in my view, though some are better than others.
I would argue if SGH was a little-known brand to retail investors in similar situation it would already have gone to 12c or thereabouts or lower.
Obviously this kind of forecasting is just subjective opinion dependent on lot of different assumptions that can be debated.
SGH Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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