Barnett and Liberals take big hit in poll with McGowan now preferred leader
Gareth Parker - The West Australian on March 19, 2016, 1:00 am
State Opposition leader Mark McGowan.
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WA Labor would sweep the Liberal-Nationals Government from power if an election was held today, an exclusive poll for
The Weekend West reveals.
The remarkable result, from a ReachTEL poll of 1248 WA voters taken on Thursday night, shows that after a week of leadership turmoil, not only is Mark McGowan more popular than Stephen Smith, but the Labor leader is also more popular than Alannah MacTiernan and Colin Barnett.
Labor’s primary vote is higher than the Liberals and after the distribution of preferences, Labor would win an election in a romp — 56 per cent to 44 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
Such a result would represent a 13 per cent swing from the 2013 State election, which ended 57-43 in favour of the Government.
A uniform swing of that size would easily sweep Labor to power, winning the party not just the 10 seats it needs to defeat the Liberal-Nationals alliance but also another 11 on top of that, effectively erasing half of the Liberal members of the Legislative Assembly.
It is the best result of a published poll for Labor since it lost government in September 2008.
Labor’s primary vote is 37 per cent compared with the Liberals’ 35 per cent. The Nationals polled 5 per cent, the Greens 12 per cent and others 5 per cent, with 7 per cent undecided.
On the question of who voters believed would make the better premier, Mr McGowan polled 61 per cent to the Premier’s 39 per cent. Mr McGowan was preferred to Mr Barnett by men and women and across every age demographic.
After a week in which Labor was forced to confront the question of who should lead it, the ReachTEL poll shows that voters agree with the decision of the party to back Mr McGowan in against the challenge of Mr Smith. Mr McGowan was preferred to lead Labor by 48 per cent of people — and 60 per cent of Labor voters — compared with 28 per cent who preferred Mr Smith and 24 per cent who preferred Alannah MacTiernan, the Federal member for Perth.
Premier Colin Barnett with Treasurer Mike Nahan.
The poll poses an interesting quandary for the Liberal Party. While it shows the Government is on the nose and Mr McGowan is clearly preferred over Mr Barnett as premier, it also reveals that Mr Barnett is the most popular option to lead his party.
Mr Barnett is the preferred leader choice at 41 per cent, with Deputy Premier Liza Harvey preferred by 33 per cent.
Treasurer Mike Nahan, Transport Minister Dean Nalder and Corrective Services Minister Joe Francis failed to crack 10 per cent of support.
Among Liberal voters, Mr Barnett is the standout choice, commanding an overwhelming 72 per cent support.
Mr McGowan and Mr Barnett declined to comment yesterday.
Electoral analyst William Bowe said a swing of the nature suggested by the ReachTEL poll would put a range of safe Liberal seats in the mortgage belt into play. He said that while swings of the size reflected in the poll were once considered to be improbable, politics was becoming more volatile.
“Somewhere like Bunbury (held by the Liberals by 12.2 per cent) with a new member (Liberal John Castrilli is retiring) would clearly be at risk and even seats like Riverton (Dr Nahan, 12.7 per cent) and Kingsley (Andrea Mitchell, 14 per cent) would be in play,” he said.
Mr Smith mounted his leadership challenge this week on the basis that he did not believe Mr McGowan could achieve the 10 per cent swing needed to win next year’s election.
In the aftermath of a leadership contest that turned out to be no contest at all, WA voters believe a strengthened Mark McGowan is the best person to be premier of the State.
Stephen Smith said he had been approached by Labor MPs who didn’t think McGowan could win a 10 per cent swing and 10 seats to claim the election.
McGowan’s backers said that Smith and his band of yesterday’s men just wanted in on the action.
The results of today’s ReachTEL poll, conducted exclusively for
The Weekend West and Seven News, show that the McGowan backers — and the entire Labor organisation, which quickly swung in behind the leader to exterminate the threat — were on to something.
McGowan’s backers hoped the Smith challenge would leave him stronger and voters appear to think that it has.
They preferred him almost two to one against the challenger Smith (and the perennial smoky Alannah MacTiernan).
Among Labor voters McGowan’s support is even stronger.
A poll is a measure of public opinion at a point in time and so this result does not mean the election due to be held 12 months hence is run and won.
Nothing of the sort.
It shows that Labor is exactly where it wants to be.
And most critically, it shows the Barnett Government is well and truly on the nose.
At the 2013 State election, the Liberals won a whopping 47 per cent of the primary vote.
ReachTEL has the Liberal vote collapsing to 35 per cent.
ReachTEL says Labor’s primary vote is 37 per cent, which is about where it was when Geoff Gallop won power in 2001.
Labor hardheads would like it higher, so no one at WA Labor’s Cheriton Street headquarters will be popping champagne corks just yet.
ReachTEL also gives respondents the option of casting an undecided ballot, which brings the primary vote potential for each party down a point or two.
The most interesting conundrum, though, is for the Liberals.
Relative to McGowan, Premier Colin Barnett is unpopular.
But he is still clearly the best of the party’s leadership alternatives, suggesting he may be simultaneously the Liberals greatest strength and biggest weakness.
There is nothing in these numbers to encourage leadership rivals such as Mike Nahan or Dean Nalder, who might fancy themselves for the top job.
Neither cracks double digits.
Which all suggests the most immediate priority for the Premier is a wide-ranging Cabinet reshuffle, which could happen as soon as this week.
Mr Barnett cannot afford to spare the underperformers and must not miss an opportunity to promote what fresh talent he has at his disposal.
It is the only way he can begin to convince voters that this is not a tired, old Government.
It is no time for tinkering.
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What scares me the most ,is the considerable damage col can still inflict on the punters in WA,till hes turfed out.
Raider
