short term risk v reward

O.k here goes im open to comments as to whats going on here ? possible scenarios as I have no Idea.

Fact 1 long term HDR looks super cheap under $1.40 and known fundamentals should see that reflected ( at some stage )

Fact 2 HDR should be going up now on the exitement of Flamant and Mputa tests ? ( it isnt )

Fact 3 the sell down now on large volume is exactly the same as WPL insiders selling on ching reduced flow rates . ( is this happening again )

So why is this happening ?

Market is sin binning HDR for under delivery and string of bad news items ?

Insiders are selling on further ching problems which will out weigh any good news from uganda ?

Merryl are loaning to shorters again or even worse unloading some of their holdings ?

Or is this a well orchestrated play at tanking the price for a take over at bargain basement prices ?

Or is HDR a smoke and mirrors company and all us long termers shoulda seen the writing on the wall with the departure of the old Big 3 ? TED , Burns , Spence