junior oilers 17/18 may, page-20

Hi folks,

Another interesting overview on the junior oilers by JBC ,
once again, many thanks for your efforts.

Just a couple of points here about the Perth Basin players and more:

HDR ..... on 16022003 my time cycle analysis analysis
on this stock was posted at AussieOilers and showed
that an entry on either date in March O3, would likely
be proven a winner. Check out the HDR chart now, ..... better market timing,enough said .....

Chart pattern has built a strong base now, so next key date for HDR will likely be June 11th 2003 and
watching for significant resistance at 66 cents .....

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ARQ ..... short-term looking for a sharp drop to the
lower side of the trading channel, as Neptune picks
up speed in its retrograde cycle now ..... a bounce
off 51 cents would be a nice buy signal.

Even BEFORE Hovea, Eric Streitberg was considering the
pipeline option to Geraldton. As an option to trucking
oil south, a pipeline must be starting to look viable,
if they can reliably maintain given output.

After the production tests are finished, they should
have enough data to make a decision on the pipeline,
which would not take long to build and should help to
keep transport costs down, in the long term.

On the issue of their own rig ..... they might be
reluctant to go down that road, given the experience the have had in the past.

Many of the junior oilers went down that route in the
late 70' and early 80' ..... only to be burnt by the high
operating costs and the headaches of running crews
and maintaining rigs ..... even more expensive in
Australia today.

Let the drilling companies do what they do best, that is,
run rigs and let the oil companies find the targets.

That has been a winning formula for the past 15 years,
so there's no need to fix what ain't broke .....

Probably the only one on the ARQ board, pushing for
a company-owned rig would be the common director
they have with AYO ..... and methinks he would be
shouted down fairly quickly .....??

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On that score, AYO only has a rig of their own, simply
because it was an idle asset hanging around from
those bad old days at Weber Creek, in the Kimberley.

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EGO ..... that recent failure at Eclipse-1 just reinforces
the old theory that there is an acute delineation of
the permeable sands/shale and the tighter formations,
which seems to occur somewhere, between Beharra
Springs South/Woddada and Gin Gin .....

..... and the further south we travel, the tighter the
formation becomes ..... just ask BP about the
$12 million they poured down Whicher Range-3 trying
to make it flow ..... likewise, with AYO's last effort
down there too.

Even before the bit is in the ground, we know this
will be another "rampers' delight", run by the same
camp ..... so be warned, don't get caught holding the
baby, when the music stops on Whicher Range-5 !~!

With news expected from Turkey any day now, we could
expect a spike up on AYO, with any good news ..... but,
if so, watch for a high around 1.12-1.13, as a target.

If the news is bad, then a pull back to one of the recent
gaps in the price chart will be likely .....

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Hope this helps some.

have agood weekend all
yogi