Going for a run, page-11

@Ashentegra - Can you please provide some more insight into why you feel a project announcement will make the share price shoot up?

While past performance is not a predictor of future performance, I've searched for project announcements on Infigen's website re: the large wind farms I know (Woodlawn and Capital) and I can't discern any significant positive movements in the share price after the announcement - happy to be proven wrong here; it was just a quick investigation.

Also there is a theoretical limit on the Large-scale Generation Certificate (LGC) price given that the penalty price is around $65 per LGC; note that this may have an effective maximum price of $93 after taking account of company tax treatment.

Currently the LGC spot price is trading at $76.50 and has been on a downward trend since late January, where it peaked close to the limit.




In summary, I don't think the LGC price has been influencing this most recent rally of IFN. My view is that this rally is likely some combination of:

1/ increasing confidence after the sale of the US business,
2/ a view that IFN may be able to refinance their debt facility after the US business sale,
3/ a more positive outlook on renewable energy policy from the federal government which increases the chance of power purchase agreements being let in Australia,
4/ due to #3 above, the perceived value of IFN's portfolio of undeveloped wind and solar projects has increased and,
5/ IFN having two projects on the ARENA large scale solar short list for potential funding.

I'd really appreciate any comments on whether this price will jump if a project gets announced, and especially any rational reasoning behind this.

Cheers