It would be worth about 2 years revenue from the fad effect, then fade into obscurity again like the Pet Rock, Chia Pet, and of course, Yowie circa 1995.
"But what about Kinder Surprise"? you say. Yes it's possible they break into mainstream, but that's survival bias - for every successful fad with any staying power, how many others go nowhere. And let's not forget Ferrero are a chocolate conglomerate with revenues approaching $10B USD, with other brands like Nutella and run by truly competent management. They also generate $1B per annum in earnings. This article estimates Ferrero to be worth $25B: http://www.breakingviews.com/ferrero-could-be-worth-$25-bln/21114514.article.
Yowie's SP has dropped 50% and the MC is still over $100M. Will they ever see that money back before the fad (likely) dies, even in revenue? Right now not looking good, unless they take off and revenues go parabolic.
Now to cue the usual responses to save all your rose-tinted true believers the trouble:
"Haha, look at this downramping idiot"
"You said that when the share price was $1.20 nobody listened to you then and nobody is listening to you now"
"My kid thinks they are great, therefore Yowie will become the next Tesla motors"
"Walmart sell our product, so we are onto a winner, this thing is a slam dunk"
"I'll be laughing at you from my yacht with a pool full of melted yowies while you sit in your mum's basement typing on HotCopper, loser"
"Ferrero is worth $25B and Yowie only $100M, this will be a 250 bagger"
quickly followed by
"Actually they can't sell Kinder Surprise into the US so at least a 500 bagger, time to remortgage my house and load up more on this sure thing, see you on the Yowie Yacht"
You called me an idiot when this was $1.20, I feel less stupid now. Maybe I'm wrong and this will go to $3. But I doubt it.
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