"Big Boys", page-30

Brett,

Volumes - at least a few hundred $thousand if they are dipping their toe in, more likely $millions (assuming a $100m market cap for easy numbers, many instos would like to have a couple of % or so if they are taking an interest in the company, and 5%+ if they have genuine belief in the story and the numbers. Obviously, that doesn't apply for $1billion+ market cap companies, so they might make the same invest in $dollar terms, but just lower holding%).

One downside for many, which is a catch 22, is that many (but not all) instos won't look at a company until it hits say $50m or $100m market cap (depending on their mandate or structure), but once it's there they will buy. Which is a bit dumb, because it means they won't often buy the same company shares at $0.50 but they would at $0.70 (those aren't accurate numbers for KNL, I'm just making them up).

Some would of course try and buy as part of the equity raise so they aren't buying on market, but many are also happy to accumulate on market once they've made the "invest" decision, and for those funds/instos that make a multi-year investment, they care more about weighted average prices, not individual trades, so if they buy one week at 30c and next week at 50c and next month back at 40c and following month at 80c, then so be it (with the caveat being that their purchase prices aren't less than their own analysis of NPV and such). Another catch 22 is that they want more liquidity (on the basis that they might need to sell in a hurry to meet redemptions out of their fund), so you need a certain number of funds on the register to get some liquidity to attract those funds.

As for appetite, my understanding (this is heresay, so I'm not quoting this as fact) is that there are significant number of funds/instos interested in the graphite space, but they are also confused. They all know SYR, and like it because it's a) massive market cap, b) liquid (relatively speaking), even if it isn't actually that compelling as a financial investment for them. As per recent MacBank report, KNL ranks next best on their view of investments, BUT, given our relatively tiny market cap status and illiquidity, that turns them off (for now). TON has thrown quite the spanner in the works, and I believe a number of them are concerned, given they don't understand the graphite space that well, and hence would rather not make a calamitous decision by picking the wrong one (while most funds/instos have excellent financial analysis skills, their actual graphite/resource knowledge would be surpassed by many here on HC. There are some analysts who still don't get that grade is not king, and that flake distribution is a bigger driver of value)

The other thing to bear in mind is that macro decisions make a massive influence on funds/instos too. We could come out with a 100% finance deal, with a sub 4% rate, or an oil company could drill a new well and find a new field, and still not get the full value of that "upgrade" if the overall market is worried about the next terrorism target, or Trump becoming the next President, or Iran launching a nuclear strike on Israel.

I think the best thing to do is not to try and pick the timing of what they might or might not do. Once we are producing, we will be valued as a producer. Sometime between then and now we are going to have a massive rise in the share price (and some falls), but trying to predict when that will be will probably come down to luck more than clever investment timing.