Next Leg Up $1336, page-19

Hi Atomic and all,

This is an interesting top 20, but I can honestly say my first reaction to the new list was not favourable. I will admit now that I can be quite cynical and I have little faith in the integrity of markets.

So on this note let me throw a scenario to all for their opinions (and they may be that I am just completely crazy and people will no longer give much credibility to my analysis but I will throw this out here any way).

During the month of April we get our Q1 report and it is as good as everyone is hoping for, lets just say 40k ounces at high 700 AISC. This is then followed up in the couple weeks after the Q1 report with a presentation on the new mining plan, and it is extremely impressive. Share price trades between our current 28c and say 32c, as the fundamentals are strong.

However during April and May POG starts to turn and falls under the psychological mark of 1,200 (possible based on short term momentum and seasonality). JPM and HSBC start to put some significant props in the sell side 1 or 2c above the action and start strategically feeding the market shares to keep a lid on/ drive the price down slowly. They own nearly 30% of the company between them now and this is well within the realms of their powers. Remember they also picked up a significant amount of these new shares at 19.5c and selling at 30c is a tidy profit.

So the story so far is we have a strong shift in BDR fundamentals other than the short term slide in POG but JPM and HSBC create false negative sentiment.

Then comes (what may be in the long term) a low ball bid at say 40c, 30% premium to the 30 day VWAP. Now the hope in here would be that Simon Jackson would reject the bid, but if he doesn't and it went to shareholder approval, you might need 70% approval. 30% of that is already made up by JPM and HSBC, in addition to this you have plenty of holders from the low teens who are being offered another 30% on the current share price for no risk.

Real risk to our long term holdings or just me being crazy?