Not even close.
You are saying for a 5 to 10 year bet. Let's say that the price (theoretically is going to be $5.00). You park your money in SGH now at 25c with let's say a 20% chance of $5.00 (2000% return) and an 80% chance of $0 (100% loss). Expected Return is 400%
Now let's say Tumble doesn't buy now but buys after the banks confirm support for SGH. He pay's 50c with an 80% chance of $5.00 (1000%) and 20% chance of $0.00 (100% loss). Expected Return is 800%.
Even ignoring statistics if you are willing to take risks you could invest in an oil and gas or a gold junior and make 50 to 100% on far less risk now and then invest in SGH after banks give support (even if that is at 50c) and make the same return. For considerably less risk
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SGH
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$49.34

Why I brought SGH, page-16
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Last
$49.34 |
Change
0.315(0.64%) |
Mkt cap ! $20.06B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$49.42 | $49.85 | $49.27 | $5.283M | 106.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
9 | 97 | $49.33 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$49.34 | 178 | 13 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
11 | 66 | 49.300 |
5 | 59 | 49.290 |
7 | 116 | 49.280 |
5 | 132 | 49.270 |
6 | 127 | 49.260 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
49.310 | 485 | 21 |
49.320 | 720 | 14 |
49.330 | 177 | 10 |
49.340 | 211 | 11 |
49.350 | 197 | 10 |
Last trade - 14.04pm 17/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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SGH (ASX) Chart |