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Ann: Appointment of Voluntary Administrators-ARI.AX, page-59

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Kepo

1,459 Posts.

42

07/04/16

16:51

Post #: 17448691
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Originally posted by hammer05 ↑

I think many people here are getting a bit ahead of themselves. I've been around long enough to have a small handful of companies in our PFs go into receivership, so I know how administration normally plays out. But this one has some interesting questions around it, such as did management finally realise they had lost of the trust of their credit providers? Didn't they receive a first strike against the remuneration report in 2015? Along with the quick exit of a major shareholder they knew they had lost of the trust of their shareholders.

I think the question of if the business is viable going forward is not essentially linked to this call for voluntary administration. Management had already offered their resignations reportedly this week, but this obviously didn't get the banks to agree to the GSO takeover (thankfully!). So really their positions at that point were untenable ,regardless of the current status of the business as a going concern. The real question I have is was the GSO offer the best option considering how dilutive the equity raising would have been? I am almost thinking the banks knew this was a bad deal for them as well?

I'm certainly not predicting with any level of certainty that this business will eventually return any value to current shareholders (although I hope it does of course). But compared to businesses like KZL, ARI does have at least one very viable business, one that is unique to this country (and possibly worth retaining?) and one that was always a pipe dream. There is no doubt the mining business is an issue, and at current prices would be just breakeven, the steel business (aside from Whyalla) is reportedly ok and MolyCop firing on all cylinders.

I don't know, but this one smells a bit different to the other unfortunate failures I've been a holder in. I've been a shareholder since late 2008, so been following them for a while now. Have to admit when they bought into the Southern Iron at the top of the market I was nervous and sold some of my holding, but never thought management would let things get this bad!

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If gov chips in, banks let arrium as a whole continue running with equity participation from gov, and massice cost cutting program..it could be a win win solution for everyone.

Mind you, this VA was called because management was trying to protect themselves, knowing that personal risks would be high..it's better to call it now.

Now VA is not the same with liquidation.

How do you suppose to liquidate a profitable mining consumables? How do you suppose to liquidate whyalla steel?

My take is that we will see arrium continue operating with diferemt management, and assistance from gov and further compromise with the banks.

ARI Price at posting: 2.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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