anyone seen a buyer, page-21

re: anyone seen a whinger lol captain_salty...

Yes...that coincides with my views...28 (ish) on the heads...10c (ish) on the oppies...if not next week, then doesn't matter, it will not be long.

All sorts of things can cause value aberations every now and then...JPR is a perfect example.

The market is consistent however in that it likes to make money...and if an oportunity exists, generally speaking, it doesn't last long.

It may be next week...it may not...but between now and just 4-5 weeks, we are likely to see JPR at least get clost to the underlying value.

I suggeste the first bit of news suggesting things are on track should be the catalyst for the run...with subsequent milstone events triggering further rises as likely outcomes become clear.

To this end, the growing interest in the "Biofuels" alternative will not do any harm, more or less underlining the likelyhood of a premium on listing, further adding to the inherent value for today's JPR shares.

In my view, given the growing interest for the sector, the particular size of this IPO, the success of previous IPO's in the region...we are virtually guaranteed of a premium come listing.

So...for JPR in the interim, in my opinion 30c+ in the heads is a given...exactly how much higher (and when), may depend on corporate objectives, but I do feel a pre-record date price of 40c is not unreasonable, even if on the very last day?

As for the options 10c is pretty much a given, for reasons outlined in previous posts (perhaps sooner rather than later)...the real interest for me however starts to appear after about 12c...a level above which corporate objectives set in.

At this point, the profile of options holders becomes an issue for the compnay and we could well see some interesting flushing tactics?

I must say, I am very much looking forward to the week/months ahead.

Quick examples...(there are many)...all starting with $210,000

1: Buy shares:

Buy 1,000,000 JPR (21c) = $210,000

Total outlay = $210,000

After IPO record date...

JPR: 1,000,000 shares (assume 15c) = $150,000
Biofuels IPO: 550,000 shares assume 65c) = $375,500

Total portfolio value = $525,500

Total profit = $315,500 = 150%

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2: Buy options (convert prior to IPO):

Buy 1,000,000 JPRO (5.8c) = $58,000

Buy 723,800 JPR (21c) = $152,000

Total outlay = $210,000

Week before record date...

Sell shares 572,000 (35c) = $200,000

Use funds to convert options: 1,000,000 JPR (20c) = $200,000

Final position = 1,151,800 fully paids.

After IPO record date...

JPR: 1,151,800 shares (assume 15c) = $172,770
Biofuels IPO: 633,490 shares @ 65c = $411,768

Total portfolio value = $584,488

Total profit = $374,488 = 178%

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3: Buy options (convert prior to IPO):

Buy 3,620,000 JPRO (5.8c) = $210,000

Week before record date...

Sell options: 2,070,000 (15c) = $310,500

Use funds to convert balance: 1,550,000 (20c) = $310,000

Final position = 1,550,000 fully paids.

After IPO record date...

JPR: 1,550,000 shares (assume 15c) = $232,500
Biofuels IPO: 852,500 shares @ 65c = $554,125

Total portfolio value = $786,625

Total profit = $576,625 = 275%

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4: Buy options (convert after IPO):

Buy 1,944,444 JPRO = $112,777

Convert into 1,944,444 JPR (5c?) = $97,223

Total outlay = $210,000

After IPO record date...

JPR: 1,944,444 shares (assume 15c) = $291,666

Total portfolio value = $291,666

Total profit = $81,666 = 39%

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All the above are relatively short term expectations...looking forward 6 months, we have the following likely values...

JPR = 25c+
Biofuels IPO = 90c+

Applying this to the above examples gives us the following profits...

Example 1: $535,000
Example 2: $858,091
Example 3: $1,154,750
Example 4: $276,000 (no biofuels shares)

I'll give you one guess what my likely strategy might be?

Cheers!