gold, page-608

Aren't you tired of having endless debate on obscure fundamentals with people just looking around to feed their firm views? The obvious is right in front of them by flipping charts. These don't tell lies.

SP500 about to test the top and media experts are coming out once more to pick the top. Just like end of last year when they say Feds can never raise rates. US jobless figures contracting into levels we in Oz once were the envy of the world post GFC but yet there are always negatives like the quality of jobs or part time job fills.

However USDX is factoring a rate freeze for longer and if you reinforce this with the sp500 rally, the message I am getting is rate on hold for the time being. There is no market crash which usually attract a following because the market is expensive. Just when goldbugs focus on the sustainability of debt or the tools available to fight deflation, CB invents new ones. Not so long ago QE was the the only tool available to fight deflation and stimulus and every goldbug was predicting market crash eventually with all that debt.

We now have stimulus 2 in the form of NIRP. Govt debt are perpetual, 10-30yr bonds are rolled over at maturity and govt don't usually settle the bond capital at maturity.

Maybe I can fuel some debate on whether high private sector debt is better than high public sector counterpart? @cncventure reminded me of the high private sector Oz debts and I had a thought about it and I now realise our Govt is a bit limited in what they can do with the economy where taxes cannot be raised from an already stressed mining states of Qld WA. In addition real estate being such a large part of the family investment makes it a political suicide to alter the negative gearing rules. This sector is more likely to suffer a crash under then weight of evidence than the typical stock market crash and resulting 1987 style instant haircut.