A solid result, I have crunched some numbers to try to interpret what it means for us in terms of valuation.
Q1 sales are -5% QonQ and this quarter gives us 3 of the 4 quarters in FY16. If we extrapolate Q4 with sales of USD37m (a conservative 9% decrease QonQ), that will generate FY Sales of USD149m which is give or take AUD205m.
This would seem to be a position for Axiron where everyone is happy; steady revenue for ACR and below a Lilly royalty payment of $25m which is conjectured at sales of USD200m. A royalty for Lilly would look very expensive, with low sales growth and limited patents / time remaining on the IP.
So, discounting the high growth option and looking at valuation from a cash flow perspective to determine a PE we can roughly project;
FY16 revenue being USD149 against USD155 in FY15 and with the USD appreciation going in our favour, that would make earnings for the full year in the order of AUD205 v AUD192 in FY15. Add the Euro royalty and we show respectable top line growth in revenue terms.
If expense growth is in line with this and that's a pretty straightforward management discipline, that leaves EPS higher in FY16 than last year.
There are a lot of variables and simplistic assumptions in the above, but hopefully it helps to put the Q3 figure into perspective as regards where the FYR is heading.
My sentiment is back to buy.
DYOR
Wazz
ACR Price at posting:
67.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
