What can we expect going forward?

  1. 2,013 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 118
    Any fundamental Analysts out there like to take a potshot at price target for us? Below I have presented 3 very basic valuations, based on further sales eventuating this year.
    M.C.-$23mil S.P.-0.16 Reserves - 120 mil tonnes. Assumes ABX finds equivalent income to minimum 6 shipments of specialized bauxite annually market by end of 2016. Attainable I believe.

    Valuations  based on assumption of mining out only current reserves with no further growth/discoveries.

    Val 1) Developed Product Bauxite Only
    Assumptions; bulk Bauxite from Malaysia resumes and Indonesia return to market in 2016, meaning no viable bulk raw market until 2018, ABX current client increases demand to 120k/annum, 3 other customer found one shipment/annum for a developed bauxite product at EBITDA/tonne $30. Total: 240k/annum. Net Profit margin after research/development deductions: $25/tonne attributable to shareholders.

    Annual Profit: $6mil., Assuming market allocates value  6% div. of Market Cap= $100,000,000. S.P.= $0.60, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41 ...
    TOTAL $1.01 S.P. by 2017.
    (Increases 2018/19 when bauxite market recovers).

    Val 2)
    Assumptions; bulk Bauxite from Malaysia resumes and Indonesia return to market in 2016 by Aug when Chinese stockpiles depleted, under refined operating standards (higher production costs), meaning viable but low-value bulk raw market until 2018, ABX developed bauxite products at EBITDA/tonne $30 (4-6 customers) 400kt. Total: 240kt/annum. Bulk Raw shipments: 200kt/annum at EBITDA/tonne $15

    Net Profit after research/development, taxes, interest: $25/tonne developed, $8/tonne raw, attributable to shareholders.

    Annual Profit: $7.6 mil., Assuming market allocates value  6% div. of Market Cap= $127m. S.P.= $0.88, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41 ...
    TOTAL $1.29 S.P. by 2017.
    (Increases 2018/19 when bauxite market recovers).

    Val 3)
    Assumptions: ABX sells 240k.t./annum developed product at EBITDA/tonne $30, Chinese stockpiles diminished (due Aug 2016) Malaysia exhausted its reserves (suggested in mining publication), Indonesia enters market under Australian equivalent marketing conditions propelling price back into $40-60/tonne range. ABX finds market 1mil tonnes/annum at EBITDA/tonne $15.

    Net Profit after research/development, taxes, interest: $25/tonne developed, $8/tonne raw, attributable to shareholders.

    Annual Profit: $14mil., Assuming market allocates value  6% div. of Market Cap= $233,000,000. S.P.= $1.60, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41c ...
    TOTAL $2.01 S.P.

    Dozens of holes and assumptions in this analysis I realise. So debunkers please provide your own valuation with justifying analysis rather than just trashing mine, for all to compare and adjust including me.
    Last edited by Captain Blood: 30/04/16
  2. 156 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 5
    Cheers for your last 2 posts CB. Sounds like management are busy securing contracts and hopefully we'll get some good results in the months and years ahead. Your analysis on the sp are achievable, currently sitting at a loss but also bought into this as a longer term investment and things seem to be gathering pace so IMO patience will reward us holders. GLTAH
 
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