NDO 0.00% 81.0¢ nido education limited

galoc estimates compared to peers, page-17

  1. 37,286 Posts.
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    hi TA

    thanks for the hard work you put in.

    Even Galoc Oilfield up against it peers looks excellent
    ================================

    Subject re: galoc estimates compared to peers
    Stock Code NDO - NIDO PETROLEUM LIMITED
    Posted 01/09/06 10:43:56 AM
    Posted by TheAnalyser
    IP 144.138.xxx.xxx
    Hotcopper Radio NDO on BoardRoom Radio
    Post #1231868 - 27 reads
    In Reply to msg #1207378

    Now that reserves are certified - might be worth revisiting an old post - DYOR ...

    Subject galoc estimates compared to peers
    Stock Code NDO - NIDO PETROLEUM LIMITED
    Posted 17/08/06 01:57
    Posted by TheAnalyser
    IP 144.134.xxx.xxx
    Hotcopper Radio NDO on BoardRoom Radio
    Post #1207378 - 190 reads
    Start of thread

    Lets just do a few what ifs on Galoc alone...

    On page 10 of the 17th May presentation the Nido share of Galoc estimated Annual Production Rates were...

    Year 1 - 1.4 million barrels
    Year 2 - 1.4 million barrels
    Year 3 - 1.1 million barrels
    Year 4 - 0.8 million barrels
    Year 5 - 0.7 million barrels

    Take Year 1 (say 2008)...

    at $US60 for a barrel of oil and exchange rate of 75 cents to US dollar this gives revenues of $A112 million.

    Now lets look at pre tax profits...

    Average pre tax operating margins of producing peers is just over 40% - so lets say Nido acheive 30% at Galoc as an assumption?

    This gives pre tax profit of $A33.6 million.

    So we have in 2008 ...

    Revenues of $112 million
    Pre Tax Profits of $33.6 million

    Now then - lets look at the Current Producing Peers in this sector in their last annual report that have...

    1. Revenues of greater than $45 million (less than half that of NDO estimate) OR
    2. Pre Tax Profits greater than $15 million (less than half that of NDO estimate)

    Lets produce 2 lists of peers - first the revenues and market caps and second the Pre Tax Profit and market caps


    1 Peers with Revenues of greater than $45 million
    ------------------------------------------------

    in descending Revenue order...

    Code Revenue Mkt Cap. (mil)
    WPL $2,883,239,000 26,800
    STO $2,580,600,000 6,745
    OSH $911,347,962 4,165
    TAP $121,397,000 294
    ARQ $105,715,000 347
    ROC $66,013,000 854
    BPT $63,249,000 855
    PSA $48,591,422 376

    1 Pre Tax Profits greater than $15 million
    ------------------------------------------------

    in descending Pre Tax Profits order...

    Code Net Profit Before Tax Mkt Cap. (mil)
    WPL $1,422,527,000 26,800
    STO $1,010,500,000 6,745
    OSH $578,882,377 4,165
    ARQ $58,214,000 347
    TAP $35,261,000 294
    BPT $28,436,000 855
    PSA $18,721,000 376
    AMU $16,837,000 202


    Now slot NDO estimates for 2008 in Revenues and Pre Tax Profits into the above 2 lists, look at the current (undiluted for options) market caps of these peers and maybe, just maybe NDO might not be that expensive after all? Maybe cheap?

    Now - of course - this assumes some things for Galoc - but what if they acheived 60% only flow rates or West Linapacan was developed (I admit more capital required), or what other assets might they buy an interest in with Galoc cash - and in other parts of the world?

    Anyway - just another way to look at it - we can then look at it from the market caps of non producing (or very little) peers - and include HDR, AWE and ROC where the market caps are looking forward - just like the NDO market cap?

    I can't see an oiler with revenues in the NDO ballpark with a cap much under $300 million in that list above - same applies to Net Profit Before Tax.

    Might be a simplistic way to look at it - but these numbers are facts.

 
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