I know its been talked about before but can you explain how a take over would happen?
Unless you get 1 or 2 of the major holders on side a take over would be doomed for failure.
Correct me on the numbers as I need to check but don't you need 20%+ in order to be in a position to make a (hostile or otherwise ) takeover. You then need what (can't remember if it is 75% or 90% )of the company to be sold to you for the acquisition to become compulsory?
Assume the T20 don't play ball at a low ball take over (why would they), then you need to take up 20% of the 35% of liquid stock on the ASX, that is 57% of ALL the available liquid stock on the ASX out side the T20. That in itself would play havoc on the supply demand & subsequent Vwap.
Take over internally - non of the current T20 are miners that want to own a mine (ie say if they were a Cameco - different argument as economy of scale by doing so), as there is no vertical integration of PEN into their pipeline. As the T20 are Bankers these guys save nothing by a take over as they still need the staff/ expenses ect for it to be a going concern. To get these (T20) guys onside would mean the proposal makes them money...Can't see a Vwap 20% above current level getting them too excited to sign on the bottom line.
However I am sure that the likes of management have a price that they would part at. In fact it is probably a long term play for these guys on how to flip the asset as the likes of Gus , Pala etc can't be seen as sellers (or they won't be able to move their whole position), so a takeover/sale in the future is a probable scenario (but don't hold your breath on that just yet
How do you see a takeover being orchestrated?
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