Sold all my SGH shares today, page-159

Sohei

I would put the following in the *rse category:

1. Anyone who didnt look at $800M Borowing facility and say TOO MUCH
2. Anyone who cant see that C%0% of NIHL cases reach fee stage in year 2016/17. ( Case cycle extended by takeover and office move),,,,,,,,and that NIHL cases settlement ( where SGH took over $144M sunk costs for zero payment) will take SGH 80% of the way to sub $500M Borrowings. THEN its normal and its probably 8 months away from sub $500M borrowings.
3. Anyone who cant see borrowings sub $300M in 3 years.
4. Anyone who cant see PE X PAT = MC or EPS X PE = SP when borrowings are normal. I reckon they will be nearly normal in 8 months.....assuming NIHL fees start coming home to daddy in second half of 2016.
5. Anyone who cant see that 18 months with an SP in the doldrums is a small price to pay for quadrupled PAT.
6. Anyone who cant see that return to normality can make SGH a 20 bagger from here . Sentiment being sentiment that could be 2 years from now.
7. SGH Directors who are not seeking investment trusts ( eg Scottish Mortgage or Caledonian ) which still take stakes of 5% on a long view in developing companies to cut down on future SP volatility.
8. Anyone selling when the catalysts for SP rise are after debt below $500m ,,,,and that is quite soon.
9. Directors who cant see the bunny in the hat.

Mel