I suggest you look back on some of the old H.C. comments prior to the drilling fiasco on PEP 11 I recall more than a few interesting conversations at meetings and presentations back then. The take away point is there is no requirement to find oil at all providing the carrot waving and general hype is well managed nimble shareholders can still make money.
Looking back at my records I see I took part in a BUY share purchase plan back on 26th of March 2008 @ $0.035 per share. It was through Claymore Capital and I must have been feeling ballsy as I took swag of them.
(By the way if anyone doubts me if they provide a fax number I can send them the records as proof. I don’t like being referred to as a liar in general and particularly by the type of person that gives hard working halfwits a bad name!)
In my opinion I feel the negative argument against there being anything substantial at PEP11 is the stronger argument. However; clearly there are still enough gullible people around to provide a decent living for CEO’s like David Breeze. Just remember the next promise he delivers on will be his first!
By the way take note of the BUY share price in the following comments and if there is a decent run I strongly suggest you don’t get too greedy.
Oil / Gas or No Oil or Gas scruples or none the idea is to make as much money as fast as you can and not get caught in any wrong doing!
I sincerely wish you and your fellow holders including those with the inability to spell the very best of luck with it all.
This has become a very interesting game. I think most here are unaware of what is really happening. You need to have a close look at the directors of the various companies, the SPP's, the dates of the announcements and see how they are all inter-related. They are dangling a carrot in front of everyone's eyes that has grown from 1.3Tcf in 2003 to 16.3Tcf in 2009. Quite amazing actually.
Ask yourselves why did Daltona Energy Corporation walk away from it after selling its 50% share in PEP 11 to BUY back in 2002?
Why did Electro Silica Plc in 2004 who were to earn a 75% interest in PEP 11 for just doing the seismics decide after they saw the results to walk away from it?
Why does BUY offer 85% of the lease to MMR/Advent for just drilling a single hole?
Answer: Because they know there is nothing there! Would you give away 85% of a 16.3Tcf field? You wouldn't give away more than 10%, I know that's all I would give away but no, BUY are giving away 85% for someone to drill a single hole.
Imagine you owned a one acre block of ground and you placed 16 gold nuggets in the ground and you said to someone come in with your metal detectors and see if you can find peculiarities and in the meantime I will sign a contract with you that will give you an 85% interest. You wouldn't do that because you knew they would find something. So BUY is saying come and drill a hole in an area that would cover 1/8th of Tasmania and we will give you an 85% interest.
Put simply, if BUY knew after 10 years that there was any gas there, anywhere, why would they give away 85% to someone to come along and drill one hole.
Ok, another angle, can I get an oil company to come and drill a hole in my backyard without any seismics and if they strike oil I will give them 85%. Actually, no, I will give them 95% because I know that there is is no oil in my backyard.
Do you get my drift. The lease PEP 11, which has still to get environmental clearance to drill even if they can raise the cash, even if the lease is extended, even if the sophisticated investors buy the story, even if the rig can appear on the horizon has next to no chance of finding anything of a commercial nature. If it were not so then why does BUY want to give away 85% of a lease that would cover 1/8 of Tasmania to someone to drill a single hole, somewhere.
I'll could tell you why but you have to think it out yourself.
Harry, sentiment changes just like the weather. But this weeks changes in regard to funding really does spell the end and that the powers to be and this includes Breeze who I hadn't mentioned before and who is running all the companies bar BUY are now out to make the best of it before the lease expires.
I had a talk to a guy who works in one of the coal mines in the Sydney Basin recently. This mine is actually below sea level and is massive beyond any comprehension. It produces over 400,000 tonnes of coal a month. There is an underground crushing plant and the rail line comes right into the mine. There are endless conveyors and tunnels that run in all directions for kilometres and kilometres. The mining involves 2 machines, 300 metres apart cutting 2 tunnels in parallel, 3.2 metres high into a coal seam. These tunnels can go for kilometres. When they run out of coal they turn and meet in the middle. Two long-wall mining machines then start cutting away the rear face while 40 tonne jacks hold up the roof. As the mining progresses the conveyors are pulled back, the jacks are pulled out and the roof is left to collapse behind them.
Dirty and dangerous work for sure. But their main concern is methane gas. At just 1% alarms start ringing and at 2% a remote signal is sent throughout the mine shutting down all machinery and all personal head back to a central location.
But I didn't want to know that I wanted to know has he ever seen any oil or gas. Gas is there, but just in small pockets. The Geos figure out where it is and send in a remote unit to drill into it and release it. It is usually under pressure and the sound is explosive when it's released but it's a rare event. On the subject of oil he has never seen any in all the kilometres of tunnels that he's travelled through and can't remember the last time the machinery was shut down due to the gas hitting 2%.
So, although they are very safety conscious in regard to gas it is a very rare event.
As someone else who posted here recently pointed out, the Sydney Basin is porous and is unsuitable for sequestration of CO2, so gas escapes by nature. 80 plus wells have been drilled and no commercial gas. Santos walked away from it and BUY have had the lease for 10 years and have never got anyone else interested in it. Throw in the environmental concerns following the leaking from the platform on the NW shelf and I really find it hard to see any future with it. And now Pareto appears to have made the decision to pull out and the only thing left is for a Bio company to try and raise the cash subject to shareholder approval in November for a lease that is going to expire on 3 December.
I'm sorry but it looks very unlikely.
Who are the sophisticated investors - will they invest?
Will the lease be extended?
Will the shareholders vote for it?
When will all this happen?
When will a rig arrive?
Will they hit gas?
Oh, to answer your question. I won't be buying back in at any price because I really don't want to be holding onto them when the company goes into pre-open and announces that one of the above hasn't happened.
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