thanks $amson,
for me - the IP risk is just a risk we have and that's about it - we can only trust that our patents are written well ------------ I have looked at them ------------ no point really - can't understand a thing and they are about a mile long.
My faith lies in that the original ones were set up with military assistance - and that along the way not only have we used the usual bevy of lawyers - but, chemists of high quality - what more can we do?
But, of course - any patent carries some risk - just gotta live with it.
Most of the large risks I see with the company are fairly remote I suspect - things like now we are basically at the end of a runway - so, a 747 could drop on our heads - wipe out the entire building and everyone in it----------- is it a risk? Well, yes it is ------ but, we would have to be very unlucky - and, financially, one would hope that we are insured for it. Of course it would be tragic in human terms - but, we are only talking about financial risk here.
To me - by far, the biggest risk with Alexium is disharmony in the camp --------- a team that runs well - basically is very very hard to beat - but, a team that is dysfunctional can stuff a company with the best product in the world -------------- so far - so good.
The signs that the team is set up for a solid future are there - Nick has handed over daily operations successfully already - and although the company, in the past has been 'Nick' - operationally, now - it is not so. Also, what 'Nick' does - although incredibly valuable - he has actually done enough already to allow this company to run for many years into the future with astounding growth rates - basically, what i mean is that he has planted enough orchard and tended it already to give us a great business.
He will keep planting new and tending - but, even if he didn't - she is pretty much home and hosed for a grand future.
As to your comment on instos. - I have covered that as best as I can --------- I doubt we will ever see massive movement - bar balance days in the indices ------------------ unless we get open bids far above the price ----------- eg. say we got a standing bid tomorrow morning for $2 bucks -------------------- of course it would get a fair sway.
$4 would get a lot more - including some of mine.
Aside from that - - just look at the board and ask yourself - just how you could take up say 10 million shares on market --------------- how would YOU do it.
The answer comes - exactly how it is being done now. Why? Because there isn't a lot off market - and, we know that the board just WON'T raise a large amount of capital - they just don't want to dilute a lot - the less the better.
And, in the future if ever they did --------- well, it would have to be to fund the mother of all big deals ------------ and, IMO - it isn't going to happen.
As to other posts on the revenue, profit and loss, debt, expansion etc. etc. -----
I have thrown everything out that has been said ------------- why?
Because what we have been told as minimums - was locked in before the year had actually started - and, what we were told as a potential over that ------------ was from existing customers.
The reality is now - that we have (as we should have all known) ----------- we have new sectors, new customers, new contracts - and, even new products etc. etc.
So - things could only be bigger than we have been told - by the company - and as far as the Moelis report goes --------- it was more conservative than my Scottish Terrier lying in bed on a cold night.
In particular - profit ------ all was factored in using a price for chemicals that was not using large amount of chemicals - with the knowledge that the cost of those chemicals would drop like a stone once certain quantities were reached.
We just won't know when those costs will drop - but, what we do know is that we are using more and more chemical and at the very least by next year - our quantities will far surpass what we were using when we set our minimums - so, I will hazard a guess that the costs will change significantly - and, perhaps massively.
Although we are moving into the new premises later than I expected - I believe there is still enough sales growth to keep our FA charts flowing nicely upwards in a rising curve - although my bet is it would have been steeper if we got into the new premises earlier.
But, by the end of calendar year - the labs will be far bigger and storage areas ditto - so, although I expect a nice rise in the next 3 quarters - my feeling is we will get a 'rate of rise' rise - after that.
i am only guessing - as a couple of things have changed lately - I haven't worked this all out in detail - it is a lot of work - and things change all the time - so, it is hardly worth it - because once you come up with an answer - you have an estimation - and, then you get an ann. like the other day that says we have pulled another thing out of our bum - and dropped the turnaround time on projects by 25% ----------- so, back to the figures.
All not worth is - just wait and see what happens.
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IP is a risk, but not really, as we have the military with big guns ready to shoot any bugger that tries stealing it
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