A2M 0.00% $6.85 the a2 milk company limited

Bell Portal $1.81 target price, page-12

  1. 6,196 Posts.
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    bullruns,
    thanks for posting this link. It's a good read. To me, the numbers found on page 22 are the most important. In particular, BP's estimate of adjusted forward earnings. They estimate the following:
    FY16e 4.2cps
    FY17e 7.47cps
    FY18e 9.42cps
    The growth rate in EPS is exceptional 78% for FY17 & 26% for FY18.
    If you then go back and read their assumptions on growth in markets (i.e. sales) and margins BP have been extremely conservative. There's got to be + or - an additional 25-30% in impact of sales & margins which will boost these numbers significantly.
    The key is:
    1. confirming NPAT for FY16 of $29.6m or $0.042 per share (BP forecast FY16 result)
    2. forward guidance from the company that IF sales growth of at least 18% p.a. (BP assumption on page 4 of the report)
    3. achieving a modest market share estimate for fresh milk sales in the USA & UK of 1.5% by FY21e (BP estimate on page 4)

    If A2M hits these 3 targets then I expect to see a solid re-rating of the share price by the market. If A2M significantly exceed these targets, then we longs are in for a good time.

    Patience will be rewarded.
    Last edited by yanlin: 09/06/16
 
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