Estimate is based on thinking that it may take 12-18 months for the first end-product to be ready and then factoring in the often forgotten 12-18 month period of "imminent" announcements until the product is actually ready to be distributed and that is how I arrived at the 2-3 year estimation
I'm not saying it won't happen and I'm not saying it's not a step in the right direction. It clearly is.
I'm just not going to rush to HotCopper and yell "THIS IS GOING TO BREAK 10 CENTS TODAY", when it's clearly a simple announcement rehashing information what was already told to us at the recent presentation.
This is quoting a paragraph from jasetheace's magical 200 thumbs up summary recently:
Surface hygiene
The development of OBJ’s internal surface hygiene product would appear to have huge revenue potential. In the previous announcement concerning this product, we were told that OBJ’s technology can kill twice as much golden staph as usual. Jeff said that they have since enhance their micro-arrays so that the improvement is now more than four-fold. This I think will also be huge because Jeff said that OBJ has already had meetings with potential partners in the United States and things are “moving very fast”. OBJ is very hopeful.
Quote from ahpigsy in the same thread:
Surface hygiene is very exciting. Particular the work going on with Golden Staph. Glyn suggested that it wouldn't surprise him if some company come along and paid OBJ 1.5 million (why that amount) to 'hold' (don't know if that was the exact word he used) the technology for them.
Quote from smac656 in the same thread:
Surface hygiene: bugs exist in microscopic cracks in surfaces. Previous Uni study found OBJ's micro-array based cloth doubled the kill rate for golden staph. Latest results show near 4X kill rate. Cost of getting a new antiseptic approved is huge. Much better to improve the ones that exist with OBJ tech. Hospitals, homes, industrial. This is moving very fast. Somebody is going to grab this and own this, and we are hopeful.
I could go through the above and highlight and bold sentences to emphasize my point, but I'm sure you will see it's basically a summary of the presentation and is more or less paraphrasing what we already know.
If you think comments such as "
a number of potential partner companies who have shown a high level of interest in the technology" and "and we are
now accelerating the surface hygiene program with the commitment of such additional resources" and "a
speedy and low risk pathway to commercialisation once a suitable partnering company has been secured for distribution" translates to anything less than 24 months before the first end product is released, then whilst I admire/share your optimism but question/challenge the reality of expecting quick turnaround times to get a product to market. I implore you to look through historical "forward-looking" announcements from 2009-2015 and appreciate just how long these things take.
Anyhow, sorry to be devil's advocate, I'd truly love to be wrong in my 2-3 year assessment for this product (btw feel free to quote this post and prove me wrong in the next 2 years time) but I'm trying to keep a level head/realistic expectations here as we have a tendency to get carried away with our emotions.
If this was a left field announcement that caught us by surprise I'd be loving it as much as the next person, but this announcement is essentially rehashing previous, known information, thus why the share price hasn't moved. I appreciate that OBJ management are just trying to get their brand out there and inform other potential investors/instos so there is a method to the madness, but to the informed OBJ investor this particular announcement is more or less word vomit (to be blunt).
Hopefully it's just the start of a chain of announcements as we are expect some news on multiple fronts soon/"imminently" etc.
Again, be patient - this stock is a winner but the short term expectation/vision from the majority of the posts on OBJ threads (especially after an announcement) is, and has been for a few years now, completely unrealistic in the grand scheme of things!
-b2r
(20min delay)