why mesoblast will drop substantially , page-171

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    The house is worth 500k in your example, but it bears no relation to the situation that Teva and MSB are in.

    If we can step away from analogies for just a moment and deal with reality like intelligent people - Teva/Cephalon have spent US$130m on the rights, They've got shares in MSB worth $63m that they paid $240m for, and they've spent an unknown amount funding clinical trials to this point. These are all sunk costs.

    They needed to spend some more money - perhaps in the region of US50-70m according to analysts - to complete the PIII trial. Before establishing the PIII trial, Teva (not Cephalon) made an agreement with MSB that if the trial wasn't progressing as hoped - either because of lack of recruitment (in and of itself a huge problem) or lack of efficacy - then they could pull out and stop funding anything. This is not a mark of MSB genius - after all, Silviu reckoned there was no chance they'd pull out at Q3 and didn't plan for it - this is a sign of Teva's view of the value of the trial. The money needed to fund the trial was peanuts to Teva, even with a $40bn acquisition imminent - they don't have liquidity issues, they could easily borrow the money to fund it.

    Even if you don't buy this reasoning because you are terminally in love with MSB, they are going to fund trial using an undisclosed equity based method - from what Silviu has said, most likely an ATM facility. This means that your beloved company is going to be selling its own stock on market hand over fist for two years to fund the trial.

    Bonne chance...
 
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