Sorry for not getting back to you on this - I am getting old and slow.
1. "as for cash - you appear to be using operational (100%)cash level. or are you estimating net cash as including bullion?"
I suggest you have a good read of the last quarterly report. I am basing my rough estimate of their cash position as at end 2016 on the basis of both cash in bank and bullion held, since bullion is effectively cash (can be sold very quickly) and they hold a lot of it. Their operating margin in the March quarter and other details I mentioned in my previous post indicates to me that their will have cash/bullion of at least $100m at end 2016 (minus whatever they may spend on major capital works for Syama underground).
2. "I as backing out the 20% of syama cash that goes to Mali Govt + making an allowance for head office costs - that is how i got to my $70-90m estimate . ie ~32-35m qtr equity cash flow+ 19m -non aisc costs"
I understand from talking to RSG that they do not pay the govt anything for their 20% carried interest until the company has recovered various costs, which I thought were capital expenditure but they also mentioned some interest payments. I doubt that they have recovered the cost of developing the oxide circuit. I think the main payment to the govt is royalties on gold production. I can not recall any significant payment being made to the govt when reviewing the annual report - but you may want to check on that. So basically they have a large cashflow (net of operating costs) from Syama to add to their cash balance. But at some stage they will have to start paying the govt a component of profits (due to the 20% free carried interest) and income taxes. No profits or income taxes will will be paid in 2016 from what I was told last year.
3. "Bullion on hand though is relevant. Gold in circuit isnt as thats cashflow.assumed in future projections."
I think you are missing the point. The relevance of gold in circuit (I think they had 20-25k ounces) is that it is a back up source of ready cash. When the plant is down for maintenance (or other reason) they can access it at next to no cash outlay and add the revenue to that quarter. The sums involved a very substantial - given that 20k ounces is around $AUD36m.
4. "Anyone have any experience with u/g expansion capex demands? ive only really seen new mine capex - not o/c moving to u/g. That would tell us a lot ."
You have made a few posts about that. I suggest you have a look at RSG's revised PFS for Syama U/G released in June 2015 - it shows robust ASIC for the project, but clearly this is no Gwalia u/g mine - and details expected capital costs. I think it will answer your concerns about Syama, and I note that the ASIC is close to what they estimated for Bibiani.
From memory they are or will upgrade the sulphide ore processing plant to improve gold recovery rates above what has been achieved historically - its in the costings, I think
5. "Also whether Mali is free carried or an equity contributor to capex?"
Mali govt is free carried. I understand that is the standard approach taken by all the govts in west Africa, most of which retain a 10% free carried interest in the projects in their countries.
loki (RSG at $2.50 in 2017, or bust)
RSG Price at posting:
$1.26 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)