True, one data point a year out from an election means nothing. However, Abbott was getting consistently smashed in the polls for 18 months - that certainly was predictive. And all the shrill propaganda of News Corpse hardly swayed last Saturday's result so it certainly wouldn't have saved Tony.
I agree with you that Turnbull ran a dismal campaign, and generally seems to have little clue how to govern with his continual policy flip-flops, terrible negotiation skills and unending waffling. But find me a pollster or even a serious commentator outside the conservative-Right fartbubble who thinks Abbott would have won more seats and you might have something.
