Personally I don't think there is much interconnection.
--------------------------------------
At this stage of trying to understand ratios between different commodities, I tend to agree. Not clued up so far looking into this method to be able to time reversals of the measure to form an informed opinion.
However I think the difference between a genuine supply-demand push or pull commodity that we on earth require such as soft commodities, gold IMO is a somewhat manipulated commodity that is only useful for fear hedging. Gold is very difficult to gauge demand and influenced by many factors from market collapse/QE to inflationary pressures measuring growth on the opposite view. Soft grains especially is greatly influenced by weather in lay man's term that has the greatest impact on supply etc.
I agree that IO exponential trajectory has come and gone as supply caught up with the desperate demand of the past Chinese appetite currently meeting status quo or the mean revert to the long term IOP. However tempting, I did not get into stocks like FMG last year when they were bargain basement screaming buy on your reasoning and future massive supplies from Vale. However FMG has almost trebled in price ever since so that is the market that can never be easily understood.
The current focus on the banking crisis in Italy/Germany especially is what I find amusing just by the Brexit trigger. Ever since the Greek crisis last year from memory, no one was talking about the Italian debt problem for a long time and all of a sudden panic generated contagion selling that has infected globally in the developed world. Our banks were also facing the tail wind of that panic, is it warranted? People have been speculating about the Syd/Mel property collapse for quite sometime thinking the contagion will infect banking collapse and I don't need to go any further than that to appreciate the fear.
All very confusing for the average punter like myself trying to plot a clear path ahead. Sometimes these shocks to the financial world are getting me immune to GFC fears playing out again. Just yesterday plenty of talk about the imminent bond price collapse that has been speculated for as long as QE was in operation! Fear mongering that can discourage from opportunities seeking constantly. Who knows anything about the future really? I could go on from either views of how good or bad the global growth is.
Anyway currently the opinions are generally driven by the weak oil price causing some selloff in the stock markets.
