Phone call from PIO today, page-101

Firstly, I submitted another post to further elaborate on my initial post that provides a scenario analysis where taking up the CR could possibly make sense (toned down the buckshot and sarcasm). Yes there are if's involved (but needs to be considered in the context of max exposure of circa $850 plus the opportunity cost on that $850 if you fully load up on the CR as I see it. However, those if's (risks) need to be assessed / considered, in terms of potential downside / upside along with the amount being exposed and an assessment of whether the potential returns are commensurate with the level of risk. I would respectfully ask you provide some commentary to that post of mine for the benefit of other members that may be sitting on the fence in terms of the capital raising on its merits given your staunch position. (I will not respond or comment on it)

In terms of your post and a right of reply, WOW.

1) Fair call on calling me out on the public institution comment and on reflection not warranted. (I have only averaged about 1 post per annum since the time I have joined this forum over 10 plus years, but got spam boxes on my screen warning of derogitory and defaming comments can lead to a red card. Is that the equivalent of yellow card before you get the red and I need to sit out in the sin bin)

BUT,
You write, "Put simply - your background is not relevant to the issue being discussed."

So I call you out on Maths and English and you call me out on not being taught "Opportunity cost ", and allude to me not having been taught any business or investment skills in any public or private institution. You then go into your background and give an insight of your investment prowess to perhaps discredit and make reference to me as perhaps being an unintelligent unschooled emotional investor.

Happy to settle the score on background via laying our quals on the table (not withstanding they are no substitute for common sense and being street smart and don't mean much unless you can actually apply them).


To settle the score, how about I'll send you an EFT for the difference between the cost of buying $10,000 PIO shares via the CR at 0.036 and your potential buy back in price at circa 0.032, IF your public / private quals (unbiased auditable indication of business / investment learnings, readings) stack up better than mine in the areas of Opportunity cost, business, investing. No downside risk to you as I see it, risk is all with me. I'm just putting my money behind my keyboard warrioring buckshot verses your bucksot (excluding the bit where you appear to have felt the compulsion to finish off with a summary of your investment prowess via the TPM reference that I do envy given I'm handcuffed and chained to a DB plan). When required, I am a calculated risk taker (with some decent failures) and can play poker as well, but has faith in the principle don't judge a book by its cover and don't assume because you can make an ass out of yourself.


2) In terms of your "Frankly, I would rather hold the $555.00 in my hand rather than spending it on something that may not happen. Have you ever heard the term, 'opportunity cost'?"

Lets look at the application of opportunity cost.

a) In my initial post, I provided some back of an envelope calcs. What the heck is the 4.1%pa Bank West amount I applied and added to 0.02 cents cost saving per share from buying on market in those calcs. Hmmmm, An assigned risk free value for the opportunity cost perhaps. If not, please try to explain investment wise, what is that for and Why the heck did I pulled that out of my backside and include it in those back of postage stamp calcs. I acknowledge 4.1 % is no circa 800% like your TPM bagger. But if you know all about opportunity cost, why the heck did you not see it when its been applied or pick me up on 4.1% to derive a different value based o you circa 800% return you have referenced.

b) As I see it, this whole discussion on whether or not to buy in via the CR is nothing but an opportunity cost, risk and scenario analysis. Eg Accessing what is my likely value of taking the 0.02 cent share saving per share and investing that amoun elsewhere vs the value your give the options (eg could be zero, could be based on a value above exercise price, could be way above the exercise price. Who the heck knows what that will be, but doesn't mean you can't take a view and consider the risks and value it more than zero based on running some actual numbers.

Once again, I have showed and applied opportunity cost principles in my second post which I request you comment on.

c) In terms of investing principles, and the comment "Frankly, I would rather hold the $555.00 in my hand rather than spending it on something that may not happen.

I'm a bit confused. Back when your SMSF outlaid $1.48 on TPM, their was no guarantee something was going to happen in terms of TPM increasing in share price. That investment principle you have applied to the $555 sounds as though you are risk averse and cash and term deposits only apply. Seems I was ultra aggressive with using 4.1% from a term deposit rate as estimate for the opportunity cost in my calc through your eyes. Should of used 0% (eg no return on $555, won't invest in anything unless its a sure thing.

Remind me again on why are you investing in PIO given their outlaying of cash on drilling and associated testwork and studywork in the pursuit of yielding proven reserves and an executable project on any of their tenements that may lead to the generation of future cashflows may not even happen.

All I can say is I am glad you did not apply that principle to the TPM SMSF purchase. Based on my high level back of a postage stamp calc, the opportunity cost of you applying that principle back then could of been in the order of:

Indicative op cost = (11.85 - 1.48 ) x (no of smsf shares in TPM purchased) less
[1,48 x (no of smsf shares in TPM purchased)X 1.15 x (compounding effect of annualised 5% less annualised CPI) over the period of holding the shares from the 1.48 price to 11.85]

note 5% is a 10 year term deposit rate that represents a riskless investment option based on you rather hold something than spend it on something tat may not happen

Something we have common ground on. Would love to see some of your investment prowess rub off on PIO and wouldn't prices that extend beyond the option exercise price (you realise on May 12 the shares hit 6.9 cents (sentiment perhaps) and I do acknowledge past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but just highlighting circa 6cents would not be an all time high SP) Unless your nearing retirement age, trust those PIO shares are in your own name outside of the SMSF. If PIO did go bang, it would give me the irritates if I had those big balances in my SMSF and fund and couldn't get access to some of it to blow on a toy or holiday for me and the family

Just curious, what investment theory do you aspouse to when it comes to valuing the impact of sentiment on a commodity or stock and the affect it has on the impact on a share price