my theory on recent weakness, page-12

Unsophisticated comments all round...

If the IPO is a failure, JPR short term will be worth 7c (or less).

If the IPO is a success, JPr is worth 30c at least.

At 12, 15, 18...even 25c, it makes no sense...what's the point of being half pregnant?

If backers truly thought the IPO would fail, they would be selling en masee, pumping the volume with bids and props...all the while, net selling their positions...eventually down to a 5-7c base.

Likewise, if we had a full book, the buyers would be all over it, clearly viewing the benefis of JPR as an oversubscriptions tool.

So what does a 14.5c price tell you?

Nothing...neither insiders bailing, nor insiders buying...just the retail rats doing their rather unsophisticated thing!

Good on them...take it an run!

If...perhaps I should say when...the IPO begins to gain interest, there is no way on earth the 12m or so (net selling) that has been dumped in the last few weeks (coinciding with the fall in crude oil) will be able to get back in at the price they sold...especially considering much of the selling has gone into the hands of "investors" and believers in the company.

The selling is due to lack of confidence in the market, and ultimately lack of commitment from "temporaries"...it has nothing to do with the prospectus, nor it's figures, nor the likelyhood of it attracting a full book, by virtue of the fact it is far too early to know any of this yet!

No...what we have here is nothing more than the product of an unsophisticated rabble, more intent on raping and pillaging than investing...the result of which of course is a beaten up and battered stock, half-pregnant with their unwanted genepool.

I had to tone the original passage dow a tad...lol

But hey, you get that in battle!

Thank god therefore the funds are being targeted for the JBF IPO...and not the retail rats which are no doubt responsible for some of the recent IPO failures, due no doubt to a collective vision of what they see in their headllights, rather than what lies ahead at the final destination!

But I digress...Gander will not, in my mind, go to Virgin Fuels, or indeed any other European destination, cap in hand, until he already has a decent level of firm commitments on the book.

The value of a player like Virgin taking even so much as a token position, would be invaluable for confidence...as such, you do not throw such an opportunity away on a half ar$ed punt!

To this end, JBF's numbers are some of the best going around...so if Virgin do not take a position, it will only be because it is not in their strategy...and not because of their numbers. If on the other hand, JBF does fit into their strategy, I find it very hard to believe they would not take a position.

Get one fund, the others follow for fear of missing out...get a Virgin commitment and they will be falling over themselves to be a part of it.

Cheers!