As for predicting exact outcomes...can't win them all I guess...lol...but the fat lady hasn't exactly sung yet!
My call on JPR is/was always based on the IPO value and after party value (energy asset)...none of which has changed.
The biggest impost to the timing of my predicted "activity" was the two week in the lodgement of the IPO...in my opinion, this has had major ramification for all sorts of reasons.
Firther...the $18 fall in the crude oil price is not something anyone saw coming either...but we must remember, this is a short term event. I don't think anyone in their right mind would expect to see oil at current prices when JBF's production starts in 2008...and continues as a cash cow through 2010, 2015, 2020...and so on.
There are some serious numbers (and longevity) to think about here.
Oil will eventually run out...or at least for common use...biodiesel however can be produced forever!
We now even have biodiesel turbine engines making an appearance...just hink about the implications here and you might see the sense in Richard Branson's support for the sector. (bio-jet explained at the end of this post)
Of course the doomsdayers will tell you the downside of feedstock supply issues, etc...but the end result is that biodiesel will progressively face increasing demand as hydrocarbons become either too expensive, to rare, or simply too dirty!
We must also remember, there are environmental benefits here...above and beyond any profitable business models.
Mandated usage and exponential growth world wide effectively underpins the Biodiesel market regardless of the crude oil price...clearly however, the higher the oil price, the more profitable the biodiesel market...and as crude eventually runs out, which it will, what then?
Do you really think the likes of BP, GE, Neste, Branson, Clinton, Gore...the list goes on...are really just jumping on the latest fad here?
This is a future industry in it's infancy...the money that will flow into this sector in coming years will be significant.
lol...none of this however will stop people selling their JPR stock for what ever reason, regardless of the underlying value of the stock they are selling...money today is a very powerful thing, especially in the face of concerns.
These concerns mind you are very real...market sentiment has shifted considerably in recent weeks, so trying to put away a $75m IPO at this point in time is no easy task.
In fact, I suggest that if JBF were after a full public uptake, they would likely fail...in this regard, I do not envy the Axiom Biodiesel backers, who are clearly hitting the marketing trail with everything they have!
Obviously struggling...especially when potential investors have the much more attractive JBF IPO to look at!
So...will the JBF IPO fail?
Given JBF's numbers (both in the IPO...lol...and not in the IPO), peer comparisons, coporate structure and in particular, amount of money flowing into this sector (particularly from international sources), I actually find it hard to believe anyone could think this would fail?
The funds earmarked for this industry are significant...they are also smart. They know they have to put their money somewhere, as such they will not let good opportunites go by due to short term market cycles.
How many funds you know take a position in an IPO with the view to selling on day one...or even year one?
Cheers!
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Boeing research notes.
Here is the full report...
http://www.trbav030.org/pdf2006/265_Dagget.pdf
JPR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
