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SP Predictions..., page-50

  1. 2,768 Posts.
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    Sure.. most of it is pretty straight-forward, when calculating the actual SP based upon each asset it is a bit of finger-to-the-wind stuff, based on how other shares are valued across the wider mining sector. I tend to be pretty conservative, due to currency fluctuations, expected price fluctuations in the commodity etc. You will note I have production figures deliberately low.

    Without further ado, here is an example for Mt. Cattlin:

    Cattlin year 2017 production:

    180,000 tonnes of approx 8-9% Spodumene (LiAlSi206) ore concentrate (600 USD/tonne)
    25400 kilo of contained Tantalum (Ta2O5) 132.01 USD/kg (But we'll use 100 USD/kg)

    Operational costs deducted from Spodumene price. Subtract $50USD per tonne. (Equates to $12M operating cost per annum + Admin + Salaries etc for Cattlin. This may be a bit low)

    $550 USD to AUD at current exchange = $730 AUD.

    $730 * 180,000 = 131400000 (Spod)
    $133 * 25400 = 3378200 (Tant)

    Total profit after operational costs: $134778200 AUD

    Divide by number of shares on issue: 134778200 / 1770000000
    Multiply that figure by a figure between 10 - 11.6 = 0.7615c (This 10-11.6 figure is a bit of holding up a finger to the wind, but it's based around P/E ratio of someone buying with a 5-10 year outlook of a share, and it puts you into the ballpark)

    So Mt. Cattlin alone, indicates a fair share price for 2017 production year of 0.76c contributed to the share price.

    So looking further down the track, we could surmise that James Bay is a similar, probably better resource and will provide similar value. So x2 = $1.53

    SdV then adds a big chunk too when in production, but these projects are in the 2018 range, so they can't be factored into today's share price, the assets themselves should add something however, be it 10-15c each to the SP...

    So you can see we are well undervalued, particularly as Cattlin is producing right now.

    This will only become evident when the first sales profits are recieved.

    None of this includes speculative value (and share price spikes) which could contribute anything from 10%-15% to SP.
    Last edited by shades2: 28/07/16
 
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