Ramsay's Rise & Rise, page-10

"....wouldn't it be nice to take some profits now and buy back much lower, which would not only increase your shareholding, but your yield too"

Only trouble is, that's what you've been suggesting since the stock price was $48 two years ago.

And also when it was $62 one year ago.

And again when it was $66 just 3 months ago.


Do you remember that unique feature called "THE LID" one of your now-infamous charts, that was supposed to represent some sort of a cap on the share price at somewhere around $65, with the accompanying alarmist annotation of "Down She Goes, Where She Stops Nobody Knows"?
(http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/downward-trend-confirmed.2727615/#post-17760763)

If this company keeps generating earnings growth of 15% pa, it would not take long for the premium in the company's valuation multiple to be eroded away.

Sure, at some stage they company might one year report earnings growth of "just" 10% or 12%, which would cause the market to be disappointed for a while, and the share price might fall 5%, 10% or 15% as a result, but until that happens you will be foregoing years of upside (as you are finding).


Put another way, five years ago - after the stock price had doubled in the space of just 24 months - people were saying the exact thing you are saying.

And then it doubled again. Which prompted a new set of people to say it was due for a fall.

And it has promptly doubled again since then.

It means that, if price correction you are so wishing for does one day eventuate for whatever reason, it might merely wipe out just one years' worth of gains, out of the many years of gains that preceded it.

Hey, you might one day turn out to be right.
But, until then, the cost of being wrong will outweigh - many times over - the cost of being right in that case.


By all means keep up the doodling, though.