Navigating the minefield
A few observations:
1) using ultra early entries and quick exits
• If you can get in - ride the first wave - and get out - you get a chance to profit and avoid any subsequent problems
• This strategy is ideal if you think the company is OK - but not a home run
• This would describe 95% of new listings
• A stock may provide opportunities to get another run - but this can be dangerous
• Getting in late can mean disaster
2) Special listings
• A few special listings deserve a longer hold
• I would include - BUD, XPE, UPD, XF1
• I'm hopeful that in time it will also include - SRT, SYT, THD - but need to see more from them to be sure of that
• Specialness is a rare combination of mgt / product / sector / communication / deals / clients / structure
3) Beware of individual reputations
• Is the CEO of 1PG a fantastic leader? Or an outrageous ramper of the stock?
• Is Matt Walker a great picker of companies? Or guilty of bringing hopelessly undercooked business to the ASX?
4) Beware of averaging down
• If a non-special stock is falling significantly there's a serious chance it will keep falling - and never recover
• Probably better to cut losses asap - and move on - than average down
• Its scary how far some can fall
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