AVR 5.12% $10.20 anteris technologies ltd

HSV-2 Vax Results

  1. 76 Posts.
    I note in the pre-clinical lab tests on mice that there were significant results:
    "We obtained 100% protection with a codon-optimized, non-ubiquitinated gD2 construct"

    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076407

    Given US population is 300,000,000
    Prevalence of HSV2 ~ 1 in 6
    Which equates to 50,000,000 people infected
    Assume a dose is a reasonable $100
    Given theres no viable alternative assume 40% market penetration

    Gives Revenue
    50,000,000 x 0.40 x 100 = 2,000,000,000
    2 Billion

    Assume NPAT is 16%
    2,000,000,000 x 0.16 = 320,000,000
    320 Million

    Assume another 50 million in shares is raised taking total to 250,000,000
    Gives EPS
    320,000,000 / 250,000,000 = 1.28

    Assume P/E of 15
    Gives a price
    1.28 x 15 = 19.02

    19.02 price target without including Cardiocel and Infusion products
 
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