True, it assumes the mine starts this year, which is not going to happen. That alone helps the NPV
It seems they calculated a FCF of around US$24m. If I change that to US$20m, the discount rate to a mere 10% and capex to US$25m the NPV falls to US$126m. Net 80% to AVQ = around $100m.
Almost the market cap of AVQ now.
Not much in it. Very slim margins.
The nickel price must rise otherwise forget this
Magically extending the LOM to 18 years with all these assumptions also helped. Shave it down to 10 years with the same inputs and the NPV also falls to $100m net. A few negative changes and the NPV falls below the current market cap
Daytraders jumped in today but there really isn't much in it. A few more cap raisings to the inner circle will cap the upside even more.
It gets even worse if I add the $19m of debt on the AxiomKB balance sheet.
