Fundamental Financial Analysis, page-42

A better advice would be run when it was 1 B and grab it while it was only 6 M. Not the other way around . Investing in commodity-based company will give you a more than satisfactory return if you pay low and not high. But whatever you pay, low or high, it means nothing if that commodity price stay lower. You'll still get burned. But the selling price can't be staying less than the cost to produce for a long time. There'll be a new equilibrium as always