As I understand it, the number of shares on issue will QUADRUPLE... even if they manage to quadruple revenue, shareholders will be barely at breakeven...
The heady days of $1.50 a share were achieved through low liquidity, with just 18 million shares on issue. When they have 120 million shares on issue, tight liquidity won't be a driving force when a juicy announcement comes along (assuming there ever will be any ever again) as every man and his dog will have a stack of them nailed to the dunny door.
If you are the poor sod who bought at $1.50, you won't break even until the company is valued at around $180 million, versus a valuation of about $2 million at the IPO. The company would have to earn about $14 million PROFIT every year to justify that valuation.
By comparison, at a share price of 25c, the company is valued at about $30 million, but still has to earn about $2.3 million PROFIT every year just to justify it. I hear lots about how much revenue they are inheriting but very little about how much profit they can expect from that revenue.
Also, given that acquisition costs are about $5 million, and they are raising more than 3 times that, suggests that they are anticipating a long period of cash burn...
Any thoughts?
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