"For us investors is important what the perception of her blubber to the 'professional investment avantgarde' is" - true. What counts is not what was said, but the market's reaction to it (see below)
"and that is pretty hard to guess"
No, is quite obvious what the market thinks (correctly or otherwise).
I posted this on EVN recently:
"markets are ALL behaving rationally in response to that widely watched Speech.
ALL major Currency pairs fell (i.e. USD rose) = anticipation of rate hike;
US 10 Year T-Notes rose over 3.6% = anticipation of rate hike;|
US Equities fell (a bit) = anticipation of rate hike;
Gold itself fell (after initially soaring, always wild swings at such moments) = anticipation of rate hike, but see below.
So, all markets, in all asset classes, are in sync.
Personally, I don't see a rate hike this year (but what I think is irrelevant, the market is speaking loud and clear) as I've said many times on Gold Forum, and so far, I've been right, and recall there's a quadrennial Presidential Election (and also many others, Congress, States etc.) Nov 8, despite Fed Dep. Chair Fischer saying (some highlights), after Yellen spoke:
"
*FISCHER: FED IS RESOLUTELY NOT A POLITICAL BODY
*FISCHER: WE AREN'T ELECTION FORECASTERS; LOOK AT ECO. SIGNALS"
Yeah, sure.
Even if we do see a hike in Sept (impossible), then what? As I mentioned above I think the inverse correlation is overrated."
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