timetable speculation, page-23

Hi nb1,

your post is a fair comment and anyone who read Musky's Question and my answer would have to assume my answer was tongue in cheek!

That is not to say it wont happen or will happen....who knows.....!

This forum and discussion has given enough insight to accept that BHP will have a number of options open to them in November.

depending what they have seen I think one of the following two things will happen....

1) BHP will make an offer in November/December at a price they feel is comesurate with risk vs reward. Bear in mind the $3.7b spent and the live lost as BHP failed.

OR

2) After feasability is complete BHP will participate in equity raising and I am very confident given that BHP have first right of refusal in APG equity raising BHP will without doubt participate in an effoert to ensre that another major does not get in the way.

The equity will progress the technology and take out most of the risk. Of course during this period APG should have announced its second or third gold deal by then (bear in mind APG have secured the rights to negotiate on three goods deposits in China next to the huge Sino gold deposits).

Also as the latest update says APG is talking to "OTHER STEEL COMPANIES" (we must be talking One steel, NZ Steel, Smorgans and Fotescue) so until BHP commit the door is open for others.

Therefore as time goes by while additional work is carried out (Nov, Dec, Jan,) as a result of BHP taking a position in APG, gold announcements and other work by other steel companies (not to mention the possibility of the ERMS/EARS going to China with another corporate ) the share price should closer to the 20c mark.

Then at some point BHP WILL HAVE TO MAKE A MOVE before they either loose the technology to another major OR the price gets too high!.

Given that APG and most shareholder know how much testwork has been undertaken over the last year or two we are all confident that the risk is very minimal as scale up is very low.

Of course there can be a fly (all beit a small one) in the ointment of BHP. Currently the major shareholder of APG now holds just on 4.9 % of the APG capital. Just enough to stay under the 5% that needs to be reported.

I am pretty sure he can rattle a few more shares up with mates which could be enough to be a thorn in a side of BHP if they were offered to another steel major.

When BHP has participated in equity raising BHP will have around 5 or 6% and with the other 5% it would put them at 10% plus which would be enough to give BHP a kickstart.

Happy Days.....