Hi insaf. Usually one would think that progression as a company would add value to the sp. FAR need to preempt if we have any hope of meaningful return IMO. Its clear management think the same or they would have run a mile from this stoush.
I think we are in for an extended period of silence. 90 days is the time line for them to sort it out amicably, we are about 3 weeks into that. If after that period expires there is still no deal then it will go to arbitration IMO. The crux of all this is the 60 days the Gov. have to OK the deal is irrelevant atm because they cannot approve the deal until its either resolved amicably in the 90 days or by arbitration. The Gov. could not afford to pass the deal only for it to be overturned in a court or by arbitration. So anyone thinking there is a limited amount of time this could go on for is mistaken I believe.
Having said all that FAR must push ahead especially as I believe they have been given advice from the Gov that they agree with FAR's position because if they didn't you would have to ask yourself would FAR be going down this path??
I think there is value in FAR but the greatest value will be obtained through preemption regardless of whether you are long term or short term. The long termers will probably gain an extra 5% on top of FAR's 15% which will add 25% to any production amounts to FAR, the short termers will get a sp spike depending on who is involved in the PE that will enable them to move on.
If the backer is big enough to make the oil world take note then if we preempt we may get taken over at least in the JV leases. AIMO DB
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