Ann: Supply Agreement With Worlds' Leading Essential Oil Company-TFC.AX, page-35

Happy to share!
My average buy price for TFC is $1.33, so at current levels I'm in the money.
I take a longer term view, with a bias for companies that have the potential to deliver underlying growth, preferably without the need for acquisitions.
I dont have my model on me at the moment, but from memory, I currently value TFC's intrinsic value at approx. $2.50 and 5 year DCF at $3.50 using growths from F17 of 15%, 2%, 2%, 10% and 6% ongoing.
While any agribusiness is risky, I love that management have engineered tree survival rates down to such a low level and are sustaining it.
The barriers to entry are huge, with land required in the right regions, water licenses and there's a 15 year maturity period.
Demand for the products is varied and growing and TFC being the largest producer in the world can somewhat control supply.

So taking a midpoint of my model's valuations at $3 and my holding cost of $1.33, I would be happy with a 225% return over 5 years. When I compare this potential the others in the market, I don't find as many compelling opportunities. Other holdings are: ALU, AYS, CGF, REG (Damn them...), RXP and SIV. Other's I'm watching for entry: APX, IPH, TRS, TWD and more speculatively IMF. All of these require pullbacks in price to justify a position.