Hi
@treefeed.
I see your sentiment is hold but it looks like they could do with another category called angry.
Can you just calm down a second? There are a few mistakes in what you're writing out here.
Start with the end.
Canaccord were the ones that let us know of a delay. They said there wasn't a contractual penalty for late delivery and that the delay would not have a meaningful impact on shipments over time.
That the shipments would end up being sent in 2017.
The reason is because there are at least 3 major process stages at the mine.
Mining/blasting, Coarse circuit and Fines circuit. The circuit that has been upgraded is the fines circuit. The coarse material is ready and sitting on the rom pad. It can keep operating on the mine material and the blasting/mining which is currently suspended because they've got so far ahead will recommence in December.
Why has this happened? Because the mine has been massively upgraded. Now instead of the old operating level of 137kt it is looking at somewhere in the region of 240-256kt plant (75-80% recovery) to be hit by mid next year.
That is why.
The decision has been made to nearly double the size of the output. Had that not been done we could be shipping already.
But we would be shipping a product with 20% mica and lower level grade. And next year be looking at half as much.
You say its going to cost us. It would have cost us 50% extra profits if they hadn't done this.
So they bite the bullet - fix all the existing issues - mica, higher grade spodumene and double output.
It is important that Mt Cattlin is set up to be problem free now before attention turns elsewhere, because it is important that the company cash cow ($150-200m year profit) is chugging along without issue when the next bills come in for the next 2 assets.
Now lastly.
Credit raising?
Sal de Vida has an NPV of between $1 billion and $1.4 billion
Cost to build - $376m AUD
Average revenues $354m USD. ($463m AUD)
Do some calm research and look at this again.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160822/pdf/439hfb9zq8bpwp.pdf
A 20% equity sale in this project would pay for the entire operation. (estimate $350m AUD)
Tianqi have just planned to spend $400m on a processor in Kwinana with a much lower return on investment.
Or borrow the money with finance.
Or seek offtake agreements with pre-payments attached.
The first is now my preferred option. We can share.
The numbers are huge and yes - time is important.
Though, on my planet it isn't measured in percentages.
100% late to me is all juniors without mines or timelines at all.
100% late pretty much means never.
A few months for a better product. That is called investment. Isn't it?
We invest in a company so that it can invest in itself and grow it's value.
Finally,
James Bay, if its to be a carbon copy of Mt Cattlin could be paid for in one year's profit of Mt Cattlin.
The company has shown that the directors are willing to step up to the plate to avoid further dilution at this crucial moment. That is a good sign. Yes it is. It doesn't happen very often.
That is showing some class. It was an apology.
Any member of the Big 6 that is looking over these profit figures, or this company's asset plans would be getting either nervous or greedy.
Galaxy is either going to be stampeded and taken over or to have it's phone ringing hot for a jv and/or begged for promises for future supply.
Once we have those 3 assets running Galaxy could easily have $800m-$1b/year profit flowing in within 3-4 years, while lithium demand is still ascending like your blood pressure today.
That is serious money and you get a shot at it here if you can be patient.
