Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice - John Skippen-SGH.AX, page-61

Confirmation bias.

This forum is an insular community. It spends its time fostering a shared belief among members that (a) the SP will recover, (b) SGH will make everyone rich and (c) (most importantly) the passage of time will prove everyone right over the naysayers.

This group think entrenches a shared set of expectations and taints the interpretation of new data. News about the company that people outside the community may view in a negative way (e.g. "...Grech says he will not buy shares, he must no faith in the company future") are interpreted positively (e.g. "Grech says he won't buy shares, his personal integrity must prevent him from profiting from the co's misfortune!"), or disregarded altogether ("Whether or not Grech buys shares is irrelevant, its his own personal business..." etc.).

Opinions that run against the grain of the group think are systematically attacked and expelled. The community acts like an organic cell - maintaining a protective barrier against dangerous external stimuli (e.g. ignoring or discrediting negative media coverage), attacking pathogens which breach these defenses (e.g. aggressive responses against taboo-breakers like Alex and Grant) and working towards a state of homeostasis (e.g. thumbing-up of posts which validate and reinforce acceptable group-think).

And so Denbo, after a year or more immersed in this self-regulated little bubble, like a cult member separated from the outside world in a remote compound, you wander out into the free world rubbing your eyes in wonder as though blinded by the sun. And you see this great disconnect between what the world at large believes and all those things you've been told is true and have come to accept as gospel. Naturally, you feel bewildered and lost. You don't know who or what to trust anymore.

Y'know Denbo, your "elephant in the room" post really threatened the community's worldview. From the perspective of those that defend the consensus-reality it was a dangerous and controversial statement. It unsettled the established order. Make no mistake, a newbie would've been labelled a suppressive person and shunned for saying what you said. But you're a member of the inner-circle Denbo. A banner-waver. A respected layman if not a high-priest of the order.

The challenge for the group now is to bring you back into the fold. Gently. Discretely. Relentlessly. Oh, they'll provide some cursory acknowledgement of your concerns, perhaps even moderate the narrative for a while ("... yes brother Denbo, FY results were slightly disappointing... yes comrade, its a shame NIHL outcomes weren't disclosed" etc)... but at the same time its vitally important that the core premise of the community's worldview be re-established (... don't forget brother Denbo, we always knew FY16 would be bad .... but the recovery has started, the ship has turned. Have faith....")