accumulation distribution, page-7

T4P

There have been many wells drilled that have turned out 'half-pregnant'.... confusing well results that when after years of no development or dribbling commericiality, the market writes it off to have minimal value...

Nothing is proven until we see flow rates... that is the ultimate determinant of deliverable value for oilers... there is always a chance that the upper zones of interest in this well could turn out to be disappointing, the classic mistake with oilers is to start counting those damn chooks before they hatch... just have a look at SAE where the market is still waiting for a result six months after promising drill results ...

there are plenty of good signs at GDN, but the other question is whether it will justify $125m in current market cap. time will tell. when you look at the market cap of established mid-tier producers such as TAP, PSA, this oiler is no longer cheap..there is still some big announcements from GDN to come so the trading action will stay for a while, but after the drill rig leaves the site the market has a nasty habit of heavily discounting 'potential'.

these things start to play out over longer time periods after the first few weeks of results, and it is then that the hot money will qickly leave for faster action elsewhere..leaving the stock to the value driven investors...

I suspect you will be long gone by then?

ac