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GXY galaxy resources limited

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Galaxy... GXY... Chart..., page-85

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10/09/16

18:21

Post #: 19071714
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Originally posted by airconditioner ↑

Odd isn't it?

I can list a dozen recent positive catalysts for growth off the top of my head that would be logical and rational to reward the company

- increased output and product quality from Mt Cattlin
- increased interest from clients to secure larger and longer term contracts
- upwards pressure on pricing from lack of supply whilst negotiations take place for 2017
- lack of competition in the spodumene sector
- directors investing their own money into the company
- release of a massively profitable DFS for SDV
- US and China ratifying Paris Agreement amongst other positive government moves to transition economies in China and Europe.
- growing local media attention on the sector as more local renewable projects get up and running (South Australia, Queensland, increased adoption of power wall tech)
- increasing scale of Chinese investment - take overs and production/processing infrastructure
(7 battery plants in China alone, Kwinana, partial take-over of SQM by Tianqi etc etc)
- weekly announcements of new electric vehicle models (latest Daimler, Porsche, VW)
- ASX200 inclusion
- successful merge on nearly unanimous vote

But the negatives of
- A delay in first shipment
- Mac Bank refusing to price in SDV but and simultaneously value other medium term operations which are yet to reach permitting, DFS or build stage.

These are somehow given the entire logical reason why the share price should be under pressure.

The first negative is temporary and the second should weigh much more heavily on the speculative side of lithium and those further from production (KDR, PLS, AJM etc etc).
This does not seem to be the case.

Its a reasonable thing to take notice of the negative factors but when the ones hyper-ventillating the hardest (the three amigos who just conga-lined in above me)
have short positions then you also have to also put that in perspective. Some long holders may still decide that it is best to pull a "vanashino" and just turn off the screen for at least a few weeks. No point in watching the forum descending into a bear-pit get to you if you're given to being emotional.

If you step back, calm down and be rational then we'd have to see that this is a phase of manipulation and capping for accumulation, whilst playing to retail fears.

This is the time for them to do it. One more piece of good news and the scales could easily tip back to the rational centre or all the way to positive.
All it would take was an announcement on SDV finance/jv or a higher price being locked in for 2017 spodumene shipments and Galaxy would be on the front foot again and swinging.

On ABC Business you had the start of a bit of push-back against Mac Bank. UBS and PLS plainly saying that it was wrong and wasn't recognising Chinese demand. Joe Lowry and Simon Moore have already condemned it as completely incoherent and provided their own higher forecasts.
Mac bank didn't even visit China to determine the scale of Chinese battery demand. How can you ignore the lithium epicentre of the world and do a thorough analysis?

A good overview of Galaxy's position would look at the macro and micro factors and say there is every reason to remain extremely bullish on lithium and that a position here in this company that, despite the recent set-back, will still emerge fastest from the spectator/speculator stocks is still a sound investment.
The amount of blood in the streets is an indication of how well some of the analysts have done their numbers and play every single moment of indecision to perfection.

Friday's US market dropped without much reason that I can see either - job and house numbers strong, low interest and there was a drop in both oil and gold. Seems to be just a bit of a "meh" move at the end of US Summer. We had similar moves already on the ASX this week -
banks down, gold down etc.

I'd really like to thank malmanu for his point about the price in January.
In January we were at 12c and we were promised the mine would open in 3 months time - March 31st. Its a very similar situation.
Some said it wouldn't happen on time - that Galaxy was mismanaged and already over.
In those days sp rose about 1/2 a cent a week. Start of Feb was only 16.5c.
February rose and there was a price correction back down to 13.5c and back up as people got afraid of China slow down. and then didn't.
There was however, continued fear that the mine would not open on time, some people sold out just as it did so at 25.5c at the end of March.
By late April the price had already hit 48.5c.
It corrected back down to 38.5c and then moved onto to mid 50s by mid June.
Held 50 through July and then shorted the hell out of.

Are we know back in January mode - still unable to quite see just how quickly and positively the market will react when our shipment leaves port?

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Hi A/C, Thanks for posting this bit of share price history in the first half of this year. It does seem that the fear and uncertainty surrounding these earlier events of the opening of the mine, are still being mirrored and played out now, as they relate to the delay of first shipment, delay of SDV DFS, criticisms that management are not on the ball , and that shareholders are not being kept informed enough. It could feel like de-ja-vu for long term holders! It just goes to show how well off the longer term holders became as a result of not having pannicked and sold their shares earlier in the year. I bet the people that sold just before the SP rises heavily regretted their decisions. At least we'll all be set up and ready for when the first shipment does leave port.

GXY Price at posting: 37.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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