General: Share Price, Trades and chart related discussions, page-867

When it fell like a stone yesterday I thought I could could either spend the day typing up fundamentals that nobody was interested in, cry with the sp-watchers
- or just pick the bottom and buy more.

Today I'm back with fundamentals.
Follow the money.

VW is spending $10b on a battery plant.
Panasonic's demand by 2020 will equal the entire output of the world'd carbonate right now.
I could go on and on and on. You know I can.
They're not outlaying all the capital on battery plants for nothing.

So -we are delayed 3 months. Mostly by a bitchin' record wet winter that exceeded any ability to plan for.
Remember also that all the shipping dates so far have come from General Mining, not Galaxy.
Galaxy has always had conservative figures. General Mining a bit more enthusiastic.
Now we have the same team in to finish off the last 20% that work on Greenbushes. I expect we'll be getting enough updates now to make it a bit easier to fight off the shorters. Shorters hate good news.

Mt Marion is also delayed. They could be looking at January there.
PLS is not getting any closer either. Their DFS is delayed and their mine relies on floatation techniques that will slow them down even more with permitting and commissioning. Much trickier to get up and running with that set up. And a lot of money for them to raise - could be $150m - and the market is now a lot less forgiving. Expect 2019 to arrive before they are getting moving.
Nemaska hasn't reached DFS either.

What competition?

Ideally, these other companies get their sheet together and help push this thing along. Galaxy and Greenbushes can't supply the entire hard-rock sector or meet the carbonate/hydroxide demands out of China. Joe Lowry hasn't been able to set a date on over-supply yet. The demand just keeps on getting higher with every announcement of new vehicles and battery plants.

The over-supply argument is getting harder and harder to even imagine.
Planning, building and commissioning a lithium mine is complicated. If it was so easy - why has their been no others even coming close to coming online this year? Or next? Expect the build phase to be 18 months minimum and that's if they already have the money, the permits, little things like water access and environmental approval, the skill to manage the construction and commissioning phase. If you think this is going to be easier for the next guy than Galaxy with an already-built mine...... expect disappointments.

Greenbushes would like to increase output but this too will take time. They have ramped up their existing mine as much as possible. They'll need to duplicate what they already have down there. That's another 18 months minimum. May not even happen. Tianqi and Albemarle have to both agree. They seem to favour the local processing at Kwinana. This is another huge benefit for Galaxy. In the future we can simply toll through Kwinana and the plant itself will train a generation of skilled Australian processing plant operators which will benefit the entire industry going forward. Might get very interesting. Cheaper for Tianqi/Albemarle to just do an offtake deal with Galaxy than build another complete mine circuit at Greenbushes.

Galaxy is still out in front of the pack. Canaccord have dropped their target on delays but they'll lift it again as soon as they have the first indications that the upgrades are on track. My money is that all new projections by Galaxy will all be on the conservative side.

Personally, I'd be hoping they can beat that December shipment date.
The Chinese converters should be happy with our new and improved product - now upgraded with higher than 5.5% percentage and less mica impurities. This is the sector of the market, the independent converters that have no-one else to rely on. I don't know how some of them are staying in business as they wait for more mines to arrive. Low quality lepidolite doesn't cut it.

The clients are OK with waiting, of course. There is nobody else. They also want to lock in delivery of more product. We have Mitsubishi to collect the cheques as reassurance and we'll have some cash to move straight onto SDV and build those ponds. Much easier to raise bank finance when you have a big Japanese insurance policy like that.

No-one likes a delay but take advantage of other's indecision before this stock gets back it's de-risked stamp.

This is just getting started.
10 years of lithium boom coming our way and we are just on the cusp of joining the producers who will profit the most.
Good luck to all holders.