Don't mind if I do! . Don't have to ask me twice.
This has been regularly floating from the back of my mind to the front and back lately.
I've wanted to use the term 'wall of cash' in several of my posts recently but thought it would be over the top.
Payment in USD, AUD tumbling. Assuming no more delays:
At US$600/t and AUD/USD = 0.75, $13.5m + $9m, + $36m = $58.5m = ~A$78m - probably before February.
At US$750/t for what's not already contracted that's ~A$93m to ~February.
@AUD/USD = 0.7 that's just about A$100m.
Rough rough eps estimate ~3c = ~30-35c SP
on ~6 months Mt Cattlin earnings alone. Forget NPVs, assets, the rest of the year's production and everything else.
Then another US$36-45m probably early-mid Q1 FY2018 for final 120k shipment. If nameplate gets hit and high recovery possibly another US$36-45m not long after that for the next 120k
. Maybe more if prices rise (and I'm thinking price rises are extremely likely).
Now I'm thinking 'tsunami of cash'...
- ASX200/300 inclusion
- Updates on upgrade milestones
- Pricing agreement
- Broker re-rates
- SDV funding/development progression
- Falling AUD on US Fed rises. (currently at ~70% chance in December)
- James Bay update/DFS
- December payment
Holders are going to get some nice gifts towards Christmas this year...
Now I remember why I'm excited about GXY.
I think AJM is probably the only company that has any chance of starting shipping next year. KDR/POS is the wildcard so maybe not but who knows. Seems bizarre to think that for all the noise about lithium, there's an excellent chance of no new spodumene (excluding RIM/Mt Marion) hitting the market until 2018. How can contract prices negotiated now not go up?