Revisiting Demand & Supply

Hello @scrubroad,

Trains: Key reason for this development is the massive avoided cost in 3rd world countries of putting in above ground electrical networks (like we have in Australia) to power the trains. Battery trains massively reduce infrastructure costs / much cheaper to run than diesel trains.

http://www.bombardier.com/content/d...tery-Driven-Bombardier-Electrostar_LowRes.pdf

Ships:  OPlease note these ferries are using 5,422 kwh or 2 mattress size banks of lithium batteries. A second order affect as the shipping companies look to reduce their environmental footprint. 10 min recharge at each stop.

http://www. slideshare.net/teriax/battery-powered-ships (delete the space)

Demand Side

The Deutsche Bank ("DB") report was very good. The key aspect it missed was when it looked at electric Vehicles it categorised them all fairly vanilla as cars. This has not been the case.

550,000 EVSs were sold in 2015 (approximately)*:

- Hyrbid electric cars = 221,420
- Pure electric cars = 140,175
- Buses (mini to large) = 140,745
- Special Purpose Vehicles = 47,800

*Source: International Energy Administration

Now if you just assumed as the banks have that the 550,000 keeps escalating you get their assumed lithium consumption profile.

However if you break demand into its sub-categories and escalate you get a very different lithium consumption profile that I believe is more reflective.

Also please note: several supportive government policies took place since the report.

Supply Side

If you review the DB report you note Mt Marrion and Mt Caitlin were expected to produce from June 2016. Both supply profiles have been delayed.

ORE.ASX ramp up profile has not occurred as fast as shown in the DB report nor reached nameplate capacity .

DB did a terrific report (very impressed) - the above changes occurred after the report was published.

These are material changes. This was a reflection of:

1. Supply comes on slower than estimated by companies; and
2. The type of / and electric vehicle demand has increased faster than expected.

Most commentators are predicting 800,000 to 1,000,000 electric vehicle (hybrid + electrical) sales in 2016.

See: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Key difference in my analysis vs DB  is the break down - particularly buses.

2015 Market was short 10,000+ tons of lithium carbonate - http://mt.sohu.com/20160229/n438822891.shtml

2016 my prediction is we are min short this amount even with new supply from ORE.ASX and Mt Marion

- this additional supply only nets out the lithium carbonate shortfall in 2015 and demand has grown since then.

Best Wishes,
Super Ninja

Please note (would appreciate - stopping the rumors):

1. Have not tried to approach nor have been approached by PLS.
2. My team introduced Optimumnano to PLS and have not had / nor sought any further involvement. They told us they never heard of PLS before we made them aware of PLS.