Short Term Trading Week Starting: 19 Sept, page-217

  1. 13,097 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 236
    Mate, you're comparing the premium to the strike price, instead of the share price.

    The share price is 5.3c. It's ITM, so you're paying for 11 months of time value. Unless you think it's going to trade flat/down (in which case, you wouldn't buy the heads anyway) then it's a classic leveraged play.

    e.g. assume heads get to 10c and it happens in the next 1-6 months, so it's not getting too tight to expiry:

    KPO: 10c
    KPOOD: 10 (share price) - 5 (strike price) = 5c (approx fair value of premium, disregarding any time value)

    Now if investors don't trust the move and think it won't go higher, then maybe KPOOD will trade at a discount to 5c. Alternatively, if it looks like the move is the real deal and there's more in it (contract announcements etc) there's every chance it could trade at a premium to heads - 6-7c maybe?

    But using the base case scenario:

    KPO: 5c - 10c = 100% return
    KPOOD: 1.6c - 5c = 240% return

    Again. That discounts any time value that is left, which could be quite significant if the stock moves in the next 1-3 months and there's still 8-10 months of time value left.
 
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