volatility and price at crossroads

I'm not much of a share trader, I prefer futures and options, but i've come across a chart with some interesting statistics.

LHG has been trading in a range for all of this month. In fact it's been trading with the lowest volatility for a year. When this happens we usually see an explosive move for the next few weeks.

The Question is which way.

The case for an up move:
Oversold and Divergence with the slow stochastics.
Doji star two days in a row, yesterday significantly on 200 day moving average.
On balance volume trending up since October.

The case for a down move:
Macd negative with a recent sell signal.
ADX sell signal triggered yesterday.
Price Close below support and 200day M.A.

Don't know fundamentals, % hedged and at what rate.
And I haven't done a correlation test to see how closely it tracks the price of Gold. But I believe gold is in a greater up trend with some short term weakness.

So take your pick and go CFD's.

If anyone has any views on LHG please reply.