kneejerk reaction? By whom, exactly?
I'd call the whole post BOJ action precision engineering of the highest order by the MM's to "unnaturally" force price to rise immediately after the BOJ, for which there was no "good" reason {it "should" have fallen after USD rose}, but the BOJ gave them a "reason" ...any reason will do... and they grabbed it zealously with both hands. Look left on a 15 min chart, you'll see the bear stop stops taken out, selling to them, at market, and then railroading it down, buying into it, hence the subsequent rise.
Nothing knee jerk about this, IMO. Daimler Benz would be proud of the craftsmanship.
They
engineering playing the swing perfectly (both ways).
Re FOMC, my own best guess is no hike in September (been saying this every 6 weeks all year, and not been wrong..not yet, anyway), but most important is the precise language of the Press Release at 4:00 am AEST, (regardless of how they might actually act in Dec, with new President-elect in place ( assuming no bullet
).
I have no idea what the PR will actually say (nor do I much care, tho I often stay up late and Post it here, but not tonight - it's obsessive behavior
), only interested in the market's reaction to it (Fed Funds Futures not expecting a Sept hike, down to 15% now, was 18% this morning, 20% yesterday), since I don't trade commodities or currencies at night.
No idea how gold will react, but I'd be content with USD 1,328 tonight, and then the bearish order block - not to be confused with a block order - (the pair of swing highs 6,7 Sep, specifically the long green bar of 6 Sept which launched the most recent selloff), offer considerable Resistance. of A lot of traffic up ahead.
For those who are night owls, it will be very interesting to watch gold and stock and currency reactions
at that hour, like those who watched BOJ a few hours ago, for which that was but a dress rehearsal.
Much of the dust will have settled (not all, even NY Futures traders take their chauffeur-driven limos home at night) by the time of ASX Market Open.
Just my opinion (JMO)
XAUUSD - DAILY
